Decision analysis for the exploration of gas reserves: merging todim and thor

Abstract

This article approaches the problem of selecting the non-dominated alternative for the destination of the natural gas reserves in the Mexilhão field in the Santos Basin, Brazil. Major aims of the case study reported here were to create a mechanism for assisting in the process of analyzing and selecting the best options for the destination of natural gas, and to enable the decision agent to choose the investment options best aligned to the expectations and objectives observed in the company strategies. The decision analysis employed in the study made use of the TODIM method and the THOR multicriteria decision support system. The application of both demonstrated that a decision analytic framework can be extremely useful when recommending options for upstream projects, owing to the fact that it can clearly identify the most important alternatives in the face of the scenarios tested and in relation to the criteria expressed. Keywords: energy resources in Brazil; multicriteria decisions; prospect theory. ResumoEste artigo tem como propósito selecionar a melhor alternativa para usar o gás natural proveniente das reservas do campo de Mexilhão existente na Bacia de Santos. O principal objetivo do estudo é a criação de mecanismos que permitam a análise e posteriormente possibilitem a escolha da alternativa não-dominada de destinação do gás natural; e dar apoio ao decisor na seleção da melhor alternativa de investimento considerando as expectativas e os objetivos estratégicos da companhia. O estudo é feito fazendo uma comparação das sugestões a partir dois sistemas, um implementando o Método THOR e outro o método TODIM. A aplicação simultânea dos métodos permite auxiliar o decisor neste processo em função dos cenários e dos conjuntos de critérios identificados.Palavras-chave: fontes de energia no Brasil; decisão multicritério; teoria dos prospectos.

Development of a scenario prospecting model with the use of multicriteria decision aiding: Importance of environmental variables

“…The AHP is the most widely used multicriteria method for planning and management in the oil and gas industry (Gomes et al, 2010), considered by many to be a complex environment; as well as strategic planning, since it includes several variables, especially in this study for the socio-environmental variable, in terms of corporate social responsibility. This predominance of AHP applications in support of multicriteria decision was also observed in other studies as in: (Ho et al, 2010), (Wu et Barnes, 2011) and (Mexas et al, 2012).…”

Robustness Analysis in a Todim-Based Multicriteria Evaluation Model of Rental Properties

“…Today different extensions of the TODIM method are available that can deal with either fuzzy or hybrid data (Fan et al 2013;Krohling, Souza 2012;Chen et al 2010). Applications of TODIM have covered a wide spectrum of situations such as real estate evaluation (Moshkovich et al 2012(Moshkovich et al , 2011), business planning (Rangel et al 2011, energy resource management (Gomes et al 2010, hospital management (Nobre et al 1999), and road planning (Gomes, Lima 1991). The fact that TODIM is founded on Prospect Theory is reflected in the shape of its value function.…”

Analysis of MCDM methods output coherence in oil and gas portfolio prioritization

“…Other studies have gone an extra step in attempting to explain the variations through a sensitivity analysis by modifying the values of certain elements (e.g., criteria weights, maximum, and minimum thresholds) and observing the changes that occur to the ranking results. For example, Gomes et al (2010) used Portuguese acronym for Interactive and Multiple Attribute Decision Making (TODIM) and AlgoriTmo Híbrido de ApoiO MulticritéRio à Decisão para Processos Decisórios com Alternativas Discretas (THOR) for evaluating investment opportunities of natural gas reserves, while Martowibowo and Riyanto (2011) used AHP, ELECTRE II, PROMETHEE II, and TOPSIS for selecting municipal solid waste treatment technologies. However, there might be no way to verify the correctness of the methods used as there is neither a true best methodology nor a true ranking of the Pareto optima.…”