Juros, câmbio e o sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil

Abstract

Interest rate, exchange rate and the system of inflation target in Brazil. In the consensus view of the Brazilian system of inflation targeting, the core of inflation is due to demand shocks; the rate of interest is set to control demand; and some variation in the exchange rate happens as "collateral damage". In this note we argue that in reality core inflation comes from cost push; the interest rate affects the exchange rate; changes in the exchange rate affect costs and prices; it is the effect of interest rates on demand that is the "collateral damage" and that the long run anchor of the system is low average real wage rigidity.Keywords: interest rate; exchange rate, inflation target. JEL Classification: E31; E43; E11.A maioria dos defensores e críticos do Sistema de Metas de Inflação brasileiro acredita que este é operado da forma descrita pelo modelo do "novo consenso" ou "nova síntese neoclássica" de autores como J. Taylor, Blinder e P. romer (romer, 2000). Neste artigo, eu gostaria de expor minha visão sobre como funciona de fato o sistema e quais são os dilemas de política econômica que surgirão se a economia brasileira for retomar uma trajetória de desenvolvimento sustentado, com taxas de crescimento elevadas, maior inclusão social e redução das desigualdades. A VISãO CONSENSUALA visão consensual do regime de metas de inflação pode ser sintetizada em três proposições: a) o núcleo ou tendência da inflação é resultado de choques de de- Revista de Economia Política, vol 30, nº 1 (117), pp 63-72, janeiro-março/2010

Inflation and economic growth in an open developing country: the case of Brazil

“…Studying economic growth, on the one hand, and tradable and non-tradable goods' inflation, on the other hand, show the importance of the nominal exchange rate. This paper discusses all these relationships formally, complementing the previous works that relate the nominal exchange rate and inflation in Brazil such as Carneiro (2002), Farhi (2006), Braga (2010), Serrano (2010) and Prates et al (2009).…”

Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory: Volume One

“…A similar difficulty is pointed out by Serrano (2010), who emphasises the harsh dilemmas that emerged when the Brazilian economy sought to resume a path of development. Serrano suggests exploring a set of policies similar to Argentina post-2002.…”

“…The use of a broad inflation index, rather than a core inflation target (i.e., excluding energy and food prices), in the Brazilian case implies that if inflation is caused by supply-side shocks, then the inflation-targeting framework, which is based on the supposition that inflation is caused by demand factors, will lead to higher interest rates in order to reduce demand pressures (Vernengo, 2008). But several authors have shown that a systematic relationship between demand and inflation acceleration does not exist (see Serrano, 2010;Summa, 2010). Thus, a question emerges: how is it possible to check inflation from interest rate in an economy in which it does not seem feasible to regulate inflation through demand control?…”

“…Thus, a question emerges: how is it possible to check inflation from interest rate in an economy in which it does not seem feasible to regulate inflation through demand control? Serrano (2010) showed that a rise in the domestic interest rate generates positive interest differentials and produces a revaluation of domestic currency. In turn this revaluation transforms the negative supply shocks (i.e., increasing commodity prices in the world market) into a positive supply shock in terms of domestic inflation.…”

“…But, in inflationary terms, this channel is more than compensated for by the effect of interest rate differentials on exchange rates. Thus, the evolution of nominal exchange rate and of the tradable goods prices in dollars were the main factors in determining Brazilian inflation for this period (see Serrano et al, 2010).…”