Qual a sensibilidade dos investimentos privados a aumentos na carga tributária brasileira? Uma investigação econométrica

Abstract

How does Brazilian private investment respond to increases in the gross tax burden? An econometric investigation. This article aims to offer three contributions to the debate on the recent performance of the Brazilian economy. First, it presents approximate quarterly figures for the Brazilian private investment beginning in 1995. Second, it presents estimates of the Brazilian "investment function" which are robust to the presence of structural breaks. Third, it discusses the sensitivity of private investment to increases in the gross aggregate tax rate. Estimates based on national accounting data prior to march 2007 seem to indicate that an increase of 1% of GDP in the tax rate is associated with a reduction of 1% in private investment.Keywords: Brazilian private investment; Brazilian aggregate tax rate; Cointegration analysis with structural breaks.JEL classification: C22; C82; E22. INTRODUçÃOOs últimos 12 anos testemunharam uma elevação da carga tributária bruta brasileira da ordem de nove pontos percentuais do PIB, fenômeno esse citado por * Cláudio H. dos Santos é técnico de pesquisa e planejamento e coordenador de finanças públicas do IPEA e pesquisador associado do Levy Economics Institute. E-mail: claudio.santos@ipea.gov.br Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires é técnico de pesquisa e planejamento do IPEA e coordenador geral de política fiscal da Secretaria de Política Econômica do Ministério da Fazenda. E-mail: manoel.pires@ipea. gov.br. Os autores agradecem a Alexandre Manoel da Silva, Alexandre ywata de Carvalho, Bruno Cruz, Jorge Abraão de Castro, José Celso Cardoso Jr., Márcio Ribeiro, Mérida Medina, Thiago Velloso, Waldery Rodrigues Jr. e a dois pareceristas anônimos pelas contribuições. Os erros remanescentes são de exclusiva responsabilidade dos autores.

Developmentalism and the determinants of investment: an econometric exercise for Brazil in the 2000s

“…Our estimates use monthly data from July 1999 to December 2013, totalizing 174 observations. The dependent variable (investment) is represented by the apparent consumption of capital goods, following Dos Santos et al (2016, 16 See Dos Santos et al (2016), Luporini and Alves (2010) and Dos Santos and Pires (2007;2009) who also use this variable in their estimations. 17 "Furthermore, applying Kalecki»s (1937) «principle of increasing risk», changes in the rate of interest have an impact on retained profits and thus on the willingness and the ability of firms to invest in capital stock."…”

The effects of infrastructure and public investment on the elasticity of private investment: an empirical investigation for Brazil

“…Investment models in the literature are based on different theoretical frameworks, for example, the Keynesian and Kaleckian models, the Investment Accelerator model, the Flexible Accelerator model, the Neoclassical Investment model, the Options Approach model, the Private Investment model in Developing Countries and the models based on the Microfoundations of Investment. However, these models "allow a myriad of non-trivial and essentially inconclusive sophistications" (Santos;Pires, 2007, p. 9).…”

“…The deterioration of the infrastructure generates its overuse and increasing restrictions in the provision of its services. This scenario affects productivity and expectations of costs, of aggregate demand and of profits, and may stimulate conventions associated with "negative" expectations that depress their elasticities.2 For investment models in the literature, seeAschauer (1989a, b),Calderón and Servén (2009; 2004a, b),Kopp (2018),Briguglio et al, (2019),Greene and Villanueva (1991),Odedokun (1997),Ramirez (2000) Blejer and Khan (1984),Oshikoya (1994),Peltonen et al, (2012),Santos and Pires (2007),Torres and Resende (2015), among others.…”

Infraestrutura, expectativas e investimento: evidências empíricas para a América Latina

“…Embora a literatura teórica e empírica contemple modelos de investimento baseados em distintas correntes econômicas, em geral, os modelos assumem como determinantes do investimento privado a taxa de juros real; o crédito; o investimento público e a taxa de câmbio real. Ainda, os modelos de investimento apresentam variações podendo incluir outros determinantes, como produto agregado e/ou grau de utilização da capacidade produtiva; grau de incerteza (em geral, representado pelas oscilações do nível de preços ou da taxa de câmbio); dívida externa/PIB e carga tributária (Briguglio et al, 2019;Kopp, 2018;Torres;Resende, 2015;Santos;Pires, 2007;Greene;Villanueva, 1991). Conforme Santos e Pires (2007, p. 9), esses modelos "permitem uma miríade de sofisticações não triviais e essencialmente inconclusivas".…”