Livestock intensification potential in Brazil based on agricultural census and satellite data analysis

Arantes, Arielle Elias; Couto, Victor Rezende de Moreira; Sano, Edson Eyji; Ferreira, Laerte Guimarães

doi:10.1590/s0100-204x2018000900009

Cited by 25 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…This is because, with the historical stocking ratio, there would be a shortfall of 29 MHa (47 MHa-76 MHa) of area needed for pasture. Given the reduced pasture area that would be available, stocking rates would have to increase from an average of 1.64 AU ha −1 to 2.66 AU ha −1 (125 million heads/47 MHa), which is well within the potential stocking rates estimated by Arantes et al [85] under realistic intensification strategies. Without intensification of pastures, clearing for ranching would be likely to encroach on the native vegetation or spill over into other biomes such as the Atlantic Forest or Pantanal.…”

Section: Cropland Could Expand Without Clearing But Cattle Productiosupporting

confidence: 71%

“…Based on MAPA projections, the cattle herd in these two biomes could grow by 13% to 125 million head by 2028 [83]. If we apply historic stocking density averages for the region of 1.64 animal unit per hectare (AU ha −1 ) [85], a total area of 76 MHa (125 million head/1.64 AU ha −1 ) would be necessary to accommodate the future herd. If all cleared area suitable for cropland were converted to cropland, the remaining 47 MHa of cleared area unsuitable for cropland that will be available for pasture would not be enough to secure the area required under the MAPA projections without intensification of cattle production.…”

Section: Cropland Could Expand Without Clearing But Cattle Productiomentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating the Potential for Conservation and Farming in the Amazon and Cerrado under Four Policy Scenarios

et al. 2020

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Since 2013, clearing rates have rapidly increased in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. This acceleration has raised questions about the efficacy of current regional public and private conservation policies that seek to promote agricultural production while conserving remnants of natural vegetation. In this study, we assessed conservation and agricultural outcomes of four potential policy scenarios that represent perfect adherence to private sector, zero-deforestation commitments (i.e., the Amazon soy moratorium—ASM and the Amazon cattle agreements—CA) and to varying levels of implementation of the Brazilian Forest Code (FC). Under a zero-clearing scenario, we find that the extent of croplands as of 2017 within the two biomes (31 MHa) could double without further clearing if agriculture were to expand on all previously cleared land that is suitable for crops. Moreover, at least 47 MHa of land that is already cleared but unsuitable for crops would remain available for pasture. Under scenarios in which only legal clearing under the FC could occur, 51 MHa of additional natural vegetation could be cleared. This includes as many as 1 MHa of nonforest vegetation that could be cleared in the Amazon biome without triggering the ASM and CA monitoring systems. Two-thirds of the total vegetation vulnerable to legal clearing is located within the Cerrado biome, and 19 MHa of this land is suitable for cropland expansion. Legal clearing of all of these areas could reduce biodiversity persistence by 4% within the two biomes, when compared with the zero-clearing scenario, and release up to 9 PgCO2e, with the majority (75%) coming from the Cerrado biome. However, when we considered the potential outcomes of full implementation of the FC, we found that 22% (11 MHa) of the 51 MHa of vegetation subject to legal clearing could be protected through the environmental quotas market, while an additional 1 MHa should be replanted across the two biomes, predominantly in the Amazon biome (73% of the area subject to replanting). Together, quotas and replanting could prevent the release of 2 PgCO2e that would otherwise be emitted if all legal clearing occurred. Based on our results, we conclude that ongoing legal clearing could create additional space for cropland and cattle production beyond the substantial existing stocks of cleared areas but would significantly impair local carbon and biodiversity stocks.

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Section: Cropland Could Expand Without Clearing But Cattle Productiosupporting

confidence: 71%

Section: Cropland Could Expand Without Clearing But Cattle Productiomentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Potential for Conservation and Farming in the Amazon and Cerrado under Four Policy Scenarios

et al. 2020

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“…Elaborado pelos autores Na Tabela 1 encontram-se, para a série temporal do Brasil, os modelos quadráticos ajustados com valores codificados de zero a 43 como a variável X (ano codificado) e os dados de cabeça bovina como a variável Y, como também o modelo não ajustado. Modelos de regressão para o efetivo bovino do Brasil, por tipo de ajuste Arantes et al (2018). em um estudo que uniu dados do censo agrícola e de sensoriamento remoto sobre o potencial de intensificação da pecuária no Brasil, verificaram que há um potencial…”

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Modelos De Previsão Do Rebanho Bovino Baseados Nas Séries Temporais Do Espírito Santo E Do Brasil

Giannotti

Oliveira

2019

Nucleus Animal.

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A metodologia de séries temporais foi utilizada com o objetivo de ajustar modelos de tendência e previsão para do rebanho bovino do Brasil e do estado do Espírito Santo. Coletou-se a série de dados anuais contendo as informações sobre o número de cabeças de gado, entre os anos de 1974 a 2017, para o Brasil e Espírito Santo da Pesquisa Pecuária Municipal (PPM) do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). O modelo de tendência quadrática ajustado com fator de amortecimento 0,25 foi o mais indicado para a previsão do efetivo de todo o território brasileiro com coeficiente de determinação igual a 0,9928, enquanto que somente para o Espírito Santo o modelo de tendência quadrática ajustado pelo método de médias móveis em agrupamento de cinco anos foi o mais adequado para realizar a previsão do efetivo nos próximos anos, com coeficiente de determinação igual a 0,7546.

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“…The PMP evaluated in this study was characterized by some degree of degradation, as is characteristic of poorly managed pastures in Brazil. To simulate the PMP on the DayCent model, the following procedures were adopted: low aboveground biomass production (~3.7 Mg ha −1 , Lilienfein and Wilcke, 2003), low stocking rate (~0.6 AU ha -1 , Arantes et al 2018), continuous grazing throughout the year (wet and dry periods) and no fertiliation. The main difference for the simulations of the conversion of PMP to FP (tropical humid climate condition) was the application of 10 g N m -2 year -1 and the increase in aboveground biomass production by ~6.4 Mg ha −1 (Wilcke and Lilienfein, 2004).…”

Section: Model Setup and Parameterizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intensification and diversification of degraded pasture areas in Brazil: potential of soil C accumulation and mitigation of the climate changes

Damian¹

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Intensification and diversification of degraded pasture areas in Brazil: potential of soil C accumulation and mitigation of the climate changesPasture improvements in Brazil, where pastures occupy ~167 million ha, have great potential for soil carbon (C) accumulation and to mitigate of greenhouse gases (GHG), such as the carbon dioxide (CO2). However, soil degradation on current pasture areas (> 50% are degraded) is an issue to be solved through sustainable management. The aim of our current field study was to quantify soil C stocks and to elucidate the processes, involved in the soil C accumulation in areas subjected to different intensive and diversified systems of pasture management in Brazil. Treatments included fertilized pasture (FP), integrated crop-livestock (ICL) and integrated livestock-forest (ILF), compared to the extensive form (conventional management system) under contrasting climatic conditions (tropical humid, tropical mesic and subtropical). To meet this goals, there were avaluaded i) the soil C stocks changes and the soil organic matter (SOM) quality; ii) the relationships between the soil C and N stocks with the different phosphorus (P) fractions; iii) the soil chemical and biochemical properties and, the soil bacterial community structure to assess the controlling factors on soil C accumulation and, iv) the use mathematical modeling to predict the soil C changes and GHG emissions. In general, the adoption of more intensive and diversified systems of pasture management in areas previously used with extensive management systems increased the soil C stocks and the soil C lability. Likewise, there was an improvement in the soil chemical properties related to soil fertility, especially in soil P. The increase in the labile P contents was directly proportional to the increase of the more labile SOM fractions. Furthermore, the conversion of conventional management system to more intensive and diversified pasture management systems, besides changing the soil chemical and biochemical properties and the soil bacterial community structure, also modified the mechanisms that control the soil C accumulation. According to the structural equation modeling, the improvement in the soil chemical properties was the factor that most influenced in soil C accumulation. In addition, through long-term predictions performed with the DayCent model, it was found that while extensively managed pastures were a GHG source to the atmosphere, systems of pasture management, such as FP, ICL and ILF were GHG sinks. Thus, for the conditions tested in this study the DayCent model proved to be an a efficient and costeffective tool to predict soil C pool changes and to monitor GHG emissions. Finally, it is believed that the results found in this thesis can assist national initiatives aimed at restoring degraded pasture areas (e.g., "ABC Plan"), as well as fits the scope of the Brazil's NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) for mitigating GHG emissions (reduce emissions 37% by 2025 and 43% by 2030) through the increase of the soi...

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Livestock intensification potential in Brazil based on agricultural census and satellite data analysis

Cited by 25 publications

References 18 publications

Estimating the Potential for Conservation and Farming in the Amazon and Cerrado under Four Policy Scenarios

Estimating the Potential for Conservation and Farming in the Amazon and Cerrado under Four Policy Scenarios

Modelos De Previsão Do Rebanho Bovino Baseados Nas Séries Temporais Do Espírito Santo E Do Brasil

Intensification and diversification of degraded pasture areas in Brazil: potential of soil C accumulation and mitigation of the climate changes

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