Modelagem preditiva de distribuição de espécies pioneiras no Estado de Minas Gerais

Coelho, Guilherme Leite Nunes; Carvalho, Luís Marcelo Tavares de; Gomide, Lucas Rezende

doi:10.1590/s0100-204x2016000300002

Cited by 13 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The AUC values found in this paper are similar to those of other studies for species of the genus Ocotea, corroborating the ability of the algorithm to predict the potential occurrence of this group of species. Using the algorithm Maxent ® , Coelho, Carvalho and Gomide (2016) found a similar value of AUC (0,964) for Ocotea corymbosa (Meisn.) Mez, in Minas Gerais.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Potential distribution of <i>Ocotea odorifera</i> (Vell.) Rohwer in urban areas of Curitiba, Paraná state, Brazil

et al. 2019

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Potential distribution of Ocotea odorifera (Vell.) Rohwer in urban areas of Curitiba, Paraná state, Brazil Distribuição potencial de Ocotea odorifera (Vell.) Rohwer na área urbana de Curitiba, Paraná, Brasil AbstractOcotea odorifera is an endangered tree species, threatened by the urbanization process that occurs in the region of Curitiba, Paraná state, among other factors. Thus, the knowledge about their geographical distribution becomes necessary to plan protected areas that mitigate the effects caused by anthropic pressures on their populations. Therefore, the objective of this research was to develop a model of the potential geographic distribution of Ocotea odorifera and to verify the region of the municipality of Curitiba more relevant to its conservation. First, we georeferenced individuals of the species found in the municipality, while the model of potential distribution of the species was performed using the Maxent ® algorithm, using meteorological and topological data as environmental variables. The Jackknife test indicated the most relevant variables to the model and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) indicated its accuracy. The potential distribution map was superimposed on a shapefile file containing the delimitation of 80 protected green areas with fragments of native vegetation. As a whole, 12 occurrence points of the species were located in seven sites. The map generated by Maxent indicated that the central-northern region of Curitiba presents the highest probability of Ocotea odorifera occurrence, corresponding to 19,550.30 ha. The model explained 96.3% of the species distribution in the study area. The relative contribution and the Jackknife test indicated that the most relevant variable to the model was pedology. In future plantings of the species, the pedology should be considered during its planning, as well as other specific characteristics of the soil at each site.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Potential distribution of <i>Ocotea odorifera</i> (Vell.) Rohwer in urban areas of Curitiba, Paraná state, Brazil

et al. 2019

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“…O mapa original fornecido pelo Maxent ® , contendo 14 classes de probabilidade de ocorrência da espécie e a delimitação das áreas protegidas foi, então, reclassificado em três classes, sendo: Alta, M édia e Baixa adequação ambiental para O. odorifera, com base nos intervalos das classes originais, a cada, aproximadamente, 33% de probabilidade de ocorrência da espécie, com adaptação das metodologias propostas por M orera-Chacón (2015) e Coelho et al (2016). Essa etapa visou a melhor quantificação das áreas potenciais para a presença da espécie, e p osterior determinação das áreas prioritárias para a sua conservação.…”

Section: Procedimentos Metodológicosunclassified

Adequação ambiental para Ocotea odorifera (Vell.) Rohwer na floresta urbana de Curitiba, Paraná, Brasil

et al. 2019

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ResumoOcotea odorifera é uma espécie arbórea que sofre pressão da urbanização na M ata Atlântica, contribuindo para o seu risco de extinção e dificultando a sua adequação ambiental. Áreas verdes protegidas urbanas, no entanto, podem atenuar esses processos por apresentar ambientes com menos impacto antrópico. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a adequação ambiental para O. odorifera no município de Curitiba, Paraná e quantificar a sua representatividade em áreas verdes protegidas. Um mapa de distribuição potencial da espécie foi elaborado por meio do algoritmo Maxent ® , utilizando-se 12 variáveis bióticas e 13 abióticas. A avaliação do desempenho do modelo foi feita pela Área Sobre a Curva (AUC). O mapa do modelo foi sobreposto a um arquivo shapefile contendo 80 áreas protegidas e reclassificado em três classes de adequação ambiental para a espécie: Alta, M édia e Baixa. A área ocupada pelas classes de adequação dentro de cada área protegida foi calculada. O modelo explicou 96,3% da distribuição da espécie. A maior parte do municíp io apresenta condições pouco favoráveis à ocorrência de O. odorifera. A área potencialmente ocupada pela espécie em Curitiba foi de 5.132,4 ha (11,8% da área total do município). Somando-se as classes Alta e M édia em cada área protegida, a maior área contínua com adequação ambiental está presente no Parque Tanguá, com 19,56 ha de adequação ambiental (88,14% de sua área total). M enos de 3% da área com adequação ambiental para O. odorifera encontram-se em áreas verdes protegidas. Recomenda-se a criação de novas áreas protegidas voltadas para a conservação da espécie. Palavras-chave: canela-sassafrás, biodiversidade urbana, fragmentos de habitat. AbstractOcotea odorifera is a tree species that is pressured by the urbanization in the Atlantic Forest, which contributes to the increase in its extinction risk and to the decrease in its environmental suitability. Urban protected areas, however, can mitigate these problems by p resenting environments with less anthropic impact. The aim of this study was to estimate the environmental suitability for O. odorifera in Curitiba, Paraná, and to quantify its representativeness in protected areas in the city. A potential distribution map of the species was elaborated using M axent ® , with 12 biotic and 13 abiotic variables. The evaluation of the model performance was done by the Curve Area (AUC). The modeling map was superimposed on a shapefile file containing 80 protected areas and reclassified into three classes of environmental suitability for the species: High, M edium and Low. The area occupied by the adequacy classes within each protected area was calculated. The modeling explained 96.3% of the species distribution. M ost of Curitiba presented conditions that are not very favorable to the occurrence of O. odorifera. The potential area occupied by the species in the city was 5,132.4 ha (11.8% of its total area). Adding the High and M iddle classes in each protected area, the largest continuous area with environmental suitability is present ...

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“…The ecological niche modeling allows the extrapolation of this information to a geographical plan, being a tool of great practical value for many goals and decision support. This may be particularly important when choosing the right species for reforestation plans and to guarantee environmental suitability (HIDALGO et al, 2008;COELHO et al, 2016). This strategy may increase the success and feasibility of reforestation.…”

Section: Ecological Niche Predicted Mapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Identifying ecological niches of vegetal species across environmental gradients contributes for the comprehension of forest diversity and ecology (RATTER et al, 2003;OLIVEIRA-FILHO et al, 2005), as well as to understanding potential responses from vegetal species to climate changes (MAIORANO et al, 2013;WANG et al, 2016). Furthermore, it provides better insight of environmental requirements for each species, which is helpful in ecological restoration projects and establishment of plantations (COELHO et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling Ecological Niche of Tree Species in Brazilian Tropical Area

Carvalho

Gomide

Santos

et al. 2017

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ABSTRACT:Modeling of the ecological niche of vegetal species is useful for understanding the species-environment relationship, for prediction of responses to climate changes and for correct reforestation programs and establishment of plantation's recommendation. The objective of this work was to establish a model for the distribution of four tree species (Casearia sylvestris, Copaifera langsdorffii, Croton floribundus and Tapirira guianensis), widely used in reforestation projects in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. In addition, we analyzed the relationship between environmental characteristics and the occurrence of species and tested the performance of Random Forest and Artificial Neural Networks as modeling methods. These methods were evaluated by their overall accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, Kappa, true skill statistic and the area under the receiver operating curve. The results showed the species Casearia sylvestris, Copaifera langsdorffii and Tapirira guianensis widely occurring in the state of Minas Gerais, including a broad range of environmental variables. Croton floribundus had restricted occurrence in the southern state, showing narrow environmental variation. The resulting algorithms demonstrated greater performance when modeling restricted geographic and environmental species, as well as species occurring with high prevalence in data. The algorithm Random Forest performed better for distribution modeling of all species, although the results varied for each metric and species. The maps generated had acceptable metrics and are supported by and ecological information obtained from other sources, constituting a useful tool to understand the ecology and biogeography of the target species. MODELAGEM DO NICHO ECOLÓGICOS DE ESPÉCIES ARBÓREAS EM UMA ÁREA TROPICAL BRASILEIRARESUMO: A modelagem de nicho ecológico de uma espécie é útil para a compreensão da relação espécie-ambiente, para a previsão do comportamento frente às alterações climáticas e para a indicação correta em reflorestamentos e estabelecimento de plantações. O objetivo foi modelar a distribuição de quatro espécies arbóreas amplamente utilizadas em projetos de reflorestamento no estado de Minas Gerais (Casearia sylvestris, Copaifera langsdorffii, Croton floribundus e Tapirira guianensis). Como complemento, o objetivo foi analisar a relação entre as características ambientais e a ocorrência de espécies e testar o desempenho das técnicas random forest e redes neurais artificiais como métodos de modelagem. Estes métodos foram avaliados pelas métricas de acurácia global, sensibilidade, especificidade, kappa, true skill statistic e área sob a curva. Verificou-se que as espécies Casearia sylvestris, Copaifera langsdorffii e Tapirira guianensis apresentaram ampla área de ocorrência no estado Minas Gerais, cobrindo ampla gama de variáveis ambientais. Já Croton floribundus demonstrou ocorrência restrita do sul do estado, mostrando estreita variação ambiental. Os resultados dos algoritmos demonstraram maior desempenho na modelagem de espécies geograf...

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Modelagem preditiva de distribuição de espécies pioneiras no Estado de Minas Gerais

Cited by 13 publications

References 18 publications

Potential distribution of <i>Ocotea odorifera</i> (Vell.) Rohwer in urban areas of Curitiba, Paraná state, Brazil

Potential distribution of <i>Ocotea odorifera</i> (Vell.) Rohwer in urban areas of Curitiba, Paraná state, Brazil

Adequação ambiental para Ocotea odorifera (Vell.) Rohwer na floresta urbana de Curitiba, Paraná, Brasil

Modeling Ecological Niche of Tree Species in Brazilian Tropical Area

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