Impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climate risk for cotton cultivation in Brazil

Assad, Eduardo Delgado; Martins, Susian Christian; Beltrão, N. E. de M.; Pinto, Hilton Silveira

doi:10.1590/s0100-204x2013000100001

Cited by 25 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…These monthly data can be used for broad planning purposes such as agroecological and crop zoning and drought analysis (e.g. Rubel and Kottek, ; Jabot et al ., ; Assad et al ., ; Cook et al ., ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Daily gridded meteorological variables in Brazil (1980–2013)

Xavier

King

Scanlon

2015

Intl Journal of Climatology

434

272

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Basic meteorological data are essential for evaluating impacts of spatiotemporal variability in climate forcing on hydrology and agroecosystems. The objective of this work was to develop high-resolution grids (0.25 ∘ × 0.25 ∘ ) of daily precipitation, evapotranspiration, and the five climate variables generally required to estimate evapostranspiration for Brazil. These five variables are maximum and minimum temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed. We tested six different interpolation schemes to create the grids for these variables. The data were obtained from 3625 rain gauge and 735 weather stations for period of 1980-2013. We used a cross-validation approach that compares point observed data to point interpolated estimates to select the best interpolation scheme for each climate variable. We also present the performance of the best interpolation for each climate variable at daily timescales and for river basins. The inverse distance weighting and angular distance weighting methods produced the best results. Performance of all methods was poorer prior to 1995 because of fewer stations and available data. The performance of the interpolation varies for different seasons for almost all variables. Forecasting capability was tested for precipitation only and performed adequately for the system state (wet or dry). Variations in the interpolation schemes across river basins are primarily attributed to differences in gauge or station network density. This freely available gridded meteorological data set significantly advances the availability of climate data in Brazil.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Daily gridded meteorological variables in Brazil (1980–2013)

Xavier

King

Scanlon

2015

Intl Journal of Climatology

434

272

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“…The possible effects of climate change in Brazil are very uncertain (section on Climate Change Stress: Past Trends, Current Conditions, and Future Protections). In a modelling study, Assad et al (2013) found that increasing temperatures (according to the A2 scenario) cause a 15% reduction in suitable areas for cotton cultivation through 2040, particularly in the northeast. Based on the rapid change in the occurrence of dry spells, the study predicted that agricultural productivity in the midwestern region may decline.…”

Section: Discussion Of the Combined Effects Of Water And Land Degradamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Central Brazil was identified by Teixeira et al (2013) as a global hotspot of soybean heat stress under the A1B scenario for 2071-2100. In a modelling study, Assad et al (2013) found that increasing temperatures (according to the A2 scenario) cause a 15% reduction in suitable areas for cotton cultivation through 2040, particularly in the northeast. In the west-central region, Mato Grosso do Sul is the only area that might be affected.…”

Section: Discussion Of the Combined Effects Of Water And Land Degradamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Brazilian Cerrado: assessment of water and soil degradation in catchments under intensive agricultural use

et al. 2014

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The Brazilian Cerrado is recognized as one of the most threatened biomes in the world, as the region has experienced a striking change from natural Cerrado vegetation to intense cash crop production. This paper reviews the history of land conversion in the Cerrado and the development of soil properties and water resources under past and ongoing land use. We compared soil and water quality parameters from different land uses considering 80 soil and 18 water studies conducted in different regions across the Cerrado to provide quantitative evidence of soil and water alterations from land use change. Following the conversion of native Cerrado, significant effects on soil pH, bulk density and available P and K for croplands and less-pronounced effects on pastures were evident. Soil total N did not differ between land uses because most of the sites classified as croplands were nitrogen-fixing soybeans, which are not artificially fertilized with N. In contrast, water quality studies showed nitrogen enrichment in agricultural catchments, indicating fertilizer impacts and potential susceptibility to eutrophication. Regardless of the land use, P is widely absent because of the high-fixing capacities of deeply weathered soils and the filtering capacity of riparian vegetation. Pesticides, however, were consistently detected throughout the entire aquatic system. In several case studies, extremely high-peak concentrations exceeded Brazilian and European Union (EU) water quality limits, which were potentially accompanied by serious health implications. Land use intensification is likely to continue, particularly in regions where less annual rainfall and severe droughts are projected in the northeastern and western Cerrado. Thus, the leaching risk and displacement of agrochemicals are expected to increase, particularly because the current legislation has caused a reduction in riparian vegetation. We conclude that land use intensification is likely to seriously limit the Cerrado's future regarding both agricultural productivity and ecosystem stability. Because only limited data are available, we recommend further field studies to understand the interaction between terrestrial and aquatic systems. This study may serve as a valuable database for integrated modelling to investigate the impact of land use and climate change on soil and water resources and to test and develop mitigation measures for the Cerrado.

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“…The agroclimatic zoning, according to Pastor & Orgaz (1994), considers as suitable the regions with DEF annual ≤ AWC (175 mm); marginal the regions with AWC <DEF annual ≤ AWC + 25 (200 mm) and unsuitable the regions with DEF annual > 200 mm. The surplus values of 25 mm were used, according to the recommendations of Sediyama et al (2001) and Assad et al (2013) for coffee and cotton, respectively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate projections on water balance and implications on olive crop in Minas Gerais

Santos

Martins

Torres

2017

Rev. bras. eng. agríc. ambient.

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Minas Gerais is vulnerable to climate change, with negative impacts on water balance and changes in the cultivation of several crops. Currently, the olive crop has been an alternative source for farmers, especially those in the South of the state. However, there is no information on areas with climatic conditions suitable for olive cultivation, as well as the possible impacts of climate change. The aim of this study was to verify the impact of climate projections on water balance and agroclimatic zoning for olive cultivation in the Minas Gerais, based on current climate conditions (1980-2011), and different climate change projections for three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). For the current climate, Minas Gerais showed 37% of suitable area, 15% of marginal area and 48% of unsuitable area for olive cultivation. For the period 2071-2100, only 4% was classified as suitable area, 6% as marginal area and 90% as unsuitable. Projections of climate change, of both temperature and rainfall, will affect the olive cultivation, substantially reducing the suitable area in the entire state.

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Impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climate risk for cotton cultivation in Brazil

Cited by 25 publications

References 17 publications

Daily gridded meteorological variables in Brazil (1980–2013)

Daily gridded meteorological variables in Brazil (1980–2013)

The Brazilian Cerrado: assessment of water and soil degradation in catchments under intensive agricultural use

Impacts of climate projections on water balance and implications on olive crop in Minas Gerais

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