Homicide and impunity: an ecological analysis at state level in Brazil

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:To assess a new impunity index and variables that have been found to predict variation in homicide rates in other geographical levels as predictive of state-level homicide rates in Brazil. METHODS:This was a cross-sectional ecological study. Data from the mortality information system relating to the 27 Brazilian states for the years 1996 to 2005 were analyzed. The outcome variables were taken to be homicide victim rates in 2005, for the entire population and for men aged 20-29 years. Measurements of economic and social development, economic inequality, demographic structure and life expectancy were analyzed as predictors. An "impunity index", calculated as the total number of homicides between 1996 and 2005 divided by the number of individuals in prison in 2007, was constructed. The data were analyzed by means of simple linear regression and negative binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2005, state-level crude total homicide rates ranged from 11 to 51 per 100,000; for young men, they ranged from 39 to 241. The impunity index ranged from 0.4 to 3.5 and was the most important predictor of this variability. From negative binomial regression, it was estimated that the homicide victim rate among young males increased by 50% for every increase of one point in this ratio. CONCLUSIONS:Classic predictive factors were not associated with homicides in this analysis of state-level variation in Brazil. However, the impunity index indicated that the greater the impunity, the higher the homicide rate.

Compression of mortality: the evolution in the variability in the age of death in Latin America

“…Those changes follow a similar pattern as observed in the developed countries (Wilmoth and Horiuchi, 1999) and can be explained by an improvement in living conditions that reduced the number of deaths caused by infectious diseases, leading to an increase in the participation of non-infectious diseases as the main causes of deaths and a change in the age pattern of mortality (Schramm et al, 2004). At the same time, one can observe a increase in mortality due to violence and transit accident in some LAC countries as Brazil and Mexico (Nadanovsky et al, 2009;Waiselfisz, 2012;Aburto et al, 2016).…”

“…Those remarkable reversal in LAC countries' variability of age at death in the last decades holds perhaps due to association with external causes of death that are also increasing in most LA countries, especially for males (Nadanovsky et al, 2009, Aburto et al, 2016, and that is avoiding further development of mortality compression.…”

Determinants of homicides in the state of Bahia, Brazil, in 2009

“…In other studies 4,23 , it was found that investments in the areas of Public Security and Education are explanatory factors for the decrease in homicide rates in São Paulo. Therefore, one should evaluate the investment currently applied in these areas as a possible beginning of a process to reverse the increase in homicides in the state of Bahia.…”

Vitimização por homicídios segundo características de raça no Brasil

“…20 This argument is reinforced by the evidence that greater impunity is related to higher homicide rates. 19 The Disarmament Statute may have reduced the homicide rate among whites. In the black population, homicide victimization increased, suggesting that the measures implemented were not particularly effective for this population.…”