Lethal crimes and the illegal drug market in Brazil from 2006 to 2015: an analysis from the point of view of the social disorganization theory and the economic theory of crime

Abstract

Brazil has a high rate of homicide, whose increase in recent years seems to be closely related to the expansion of the illegal drug market. This study aims to analyze the role that socioeconomic factors (family instability, ethnic heterogeneity, unemployment rate, and average income) play in this escalation. The study uses pooled regression models and fixed and random effects, with panel data from 27 Brazilian states for the period 2006–2015. The results indicate that the illegal drug trade is positively correlated with the mortality rates in Brazil during 2006-2015. Furthermore, the results show family instability, ethnic heterogeneity, unemployment rate, and average income as crime enhancers. This research brings insights that help develop a better interpretation of Brazilian lethal violence: in the 1980s and 1990s, violence was mainly explained by economic factors. This study points to the fact that phenomena linked to social disorder are also correlated with the level of homicides in Brazilian states. Therefore, this paper contributes to the literature by incorporating other elements that suggest alternatives to mitigate violent crime in Brazil.