Development of reservoir operation rules using seasonal climate forecasts

Abstract

This study verified the suitability of using precipitation forecasts in defining operation rules for the Cruzeta reservoir in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The operation rules were developed through reservoir operation simulation–optimization, using a genetic algorithm. The performance indicators were analyzed in five operation scenarios: standard operating policy (SOP), current reservoir rationing rule (C), rationing without forecast (R), rationing with forecast (RF), and rationing with perfect forecast (RPF). The SOP scenario better met the total demand but made the system very susceptible to supply collapse. The results of the RF and RPF scenarios showed better compliance with the priority demands and the total demand during the dry periods. Changing from RF to RPF scenario, there is a small improvement in the evaluation indexes. The use of rules integrating the seasonal weather forecast is thus recommended.

Influência da cobertura/do uso do solo sobre a hidrodinâmica do reservatório da Usina Hidrelétrica de Barra Grande, SC

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Definition of water quality variability parameters and dynamics to improve management in a deep canyon type subtropical hydroelectric reservoir

“…Problems related to population growth, pollution, increased demand for food and water, and market fluctuations remain challenging in the management of water resources. Furthermore, the effects of climate change can make these problems more complex (Allawi et al, 2019;Morais & Maia, 2021).…”