Using Voter-choice Modeling to Plan Final Campaigns in Runoff Elections

Abstract

ResumoEmbora a eleição em dois estágios seja a forma mais comum de eleição presidencial no mundo, o comportamento do eleitor no pleito em dois estágios ainda não recebeu uma atenção condizente à que merece na literatura. Eleições em dois estágios ou turnos oferecem, aos consultores políticos e aos candidatos, dados ricos e factuais sobre a preferência do eleitor, revelada através do comportamento deste observado no primeiro turno, que pode guiar o planejamento e a implementação da campanha final. Essas eleições em dois turnos também permitem que analistas políticos apliquem seus modelos de escolha eleitoral ao comportamento real (ao invés da intenção) de voto numa eleição multipartidária, e validem suas previsões na eleição bipartidária do segundo turno. Nesse estudo, utilizo os resultados das quatro eleições presidenciais mais recentes no Brasil para demonstrar como modelos de escolha do eleitor podem ser aplicados para guiar a campanha política em eleições de dois turnos.Palavras-chave: marketing político; eleições em dois estágios; eleições multipartidárias; modelo logit anidado; heterogeneidade latente. AbstractEven though runoff elections are the most common form of presidential elections in the world, voter-choice behavior in these two-round elections have not received the attention they deserve in the literature. Two-round elections provide political consultants and candidates with rich and factual data on voter preferences, revealed through the voting behavior observed in the first round, which can guide the planning and implementation of their final campaign. They also allow political analysts to apply their voter-choice models to actual voting behavior (rather than voting intentions) in a multi-party election during the first round, and validate their predictions in a two-party election in the final round. I use results from the four most recent Brazilian presidential elections to demonstrate how voter-choice models can be applied to guide political campaigns in runoff elections.

Sample size and uncertainty when predicting with polls: the shortcomings of confidence intervals

“…However, the estimation of probabilities for election outcomes affords a clearer statement of election uncertainty, with the advantage of a much smaller sample size. An interesting area to pursue in the next phase of this project applies multinomial logistic regression for voter choices among multiple alternatives including candidates and other options in the dk/ref categories (Dubrow 2007;Kamakura 2016;McAllister and Studlar 1991;Nicolau 2007). In the presence of more elaborate polling results, which differentiate between income and educational levels for instance, probabilities could be further refined.…”

Contemporary Economic Determinants for the Choice of the Leaders of the Brazilian Public Administration

“…1 LITERATURE REVIEW Grandi, Marins and Falcão (1992) indicate the importance of determining the pattern of behavior of voters as voting decision. For Barros, Sauerbronn and Ayrosa (2012), voting behavior trends could be provided depending on the composition of the socio-cultural characteristics, while Kamakura (2016) comes to applying model of electoral choice to the actual behavior of the voter.…”