O debate desenvolvimentista no Brasil e o papel da indústria: novos resultados de antigas lições

Abstract

ResumoO artigo contribui para o debate desenvolvimentista no Brasil, a partir de dados obtidos na matriz de insumo-produto brasileira de 2014. Uma vez estimada a matriz com dados do IBGE, o artigo calcula os impactos de aumentos de investimento em termos de efeitos de encadeamento, geração de empregos, salários, produção e requisitos de importações, dos 20 setores nos quais o IBGE divide a economia brasileira, tirando conclusões sobre o papel da indústria na alavancagem do desenvolvimento econômico.Palavras-chave: Desenvolvimentismo; Desenvolvimento industrial; Matriz Insumo-Produto. Abstract The 'developmentalist' debate in Brazil and the role of industry: new results of old lessonsThis article contributes to the 'developmentalist' debate using the 2014 Brazilian input-output matrix. After estimating the matrix, it assesses the impacts of an increase in investment in terms of linkage effects; employment, wages and production creation; and the import needs of the 20 sectors into which the IBGE divides the Brazilian economy. In so doing, it draws conclusions about the role of the industrial sector in the improvement of economic development.

DP 0266 - The Role of Industrial Sector in the Brazilian Territorial Reconfiguration: New Expressions for XXI Century National Dilemmas

“…We observed that the Gross Value Added (GVA) of manufacturing sector was reduced to just under half of what it was in the early 1990s: it went down from 30.1% of the total national GVA in 1990GVA in to 25.2% in 2000GVA in , to 15.0% in 2010GVA in and reached 12.4% in 2017 Specific defining characteristics of sectoral regressivity accompanied the phenomenon of deindustrialization. 3 Some "diseases" affected the industry over 1990-2015, which, in summary, can be understood by the predominance of the following conditions: i) existence of low growth rates for the VIT; ii) low levels of productivity; iii) an increase in the imported component in the gross value of production; and iv) the loosening of links among intersectoral chains (Mollo and Takasago, 2019;Monteiro Neto and Silva, 2018;Sarti and Hiratuka, 2017;Morceiro, 2016;De Negri and Cavalcante, 2014;Galeano and Feijó, 2013;Cano, 2012). Data organized in table 1 are revealing of this ongoing process.…”