Modelos Heterodoxos De Crescimento Em Economias Abertas: Uma Extensão Dos Modelos De Kaldor-Thirlwall

Abstract

RESUMO: O artigo teve por objetivo central contribuir para o processo de construção de modelos de crescimento heterodoxos para economias abertas na linha de Kaldor (1970) e Thirlwall (1979. Para tanto: i) recuperou os elementos comuns a esses modelos que forneceram uma base teórica geral para a construção de modelos; ii) buscou melhorar a articulação entre as taxas de crescimento da demanda agregada e a taxa de crescimento permitida pela restrição externa, bem como preencher o vácuo decorrente da ausência do crescimento da demanda agregada; iii) resenhou a literatura que visa melhorar a modelagem da restrição externa nessa linha teórica, recolhendo importantes inspirações para construir uma forma de modelar a restrição externa que evitasse algumas das deficiências presentes na literatura; iv) explorou algumas das propriedades e aspectos mais salientes da solução assim gerada.

A Case for Industrial Policy? Forecast Results From a Disaggregated Bop-Constrained Growth Model for Brazilian Economy (2016-2025)

“…It should be noted too that by adopting the heterodox assumption that the balance of payments and installed capacity are the main constraints on the potential growth of an open economy, the construction of the model was directly inspired by Thirlwall (1979) and it´s theoretical developments which appear in the following works: Araujo and Lima (2007), Lourenço et al (2011), Bhering (2013, Amado and Dávila-Fernández (2014), Araujo (2011), andFerrari, Freitas andBarbosa Filho (2013). Based on a Kaldorian approach to export-led growth -especially of industrial products -, Thirlwall (1979) formalized the following growth model.…”

“…While Thirlwall (1979) delivered an aggregate model for a sector that thus not capture the different income elasticities of demand for exports and imports presented by the different sectors that make up the productive structure of a country, Araujo and Lima (2007) aimed to develop a multisectoral growth model compatible with the hypothesis of growth restriction by the BP. In turn, Lourenço et al (2011) and Bhering (2013) sought to incorporate the capital flow effect into a growth model restricted by BP, considering a priori the possibility of sustainable expansion of net external liabilities. Contrary to Thirlwall (1979), Amado and Dávila-Fernández (2014) rejected the validity of long-term purchasing power parity and sought to incorporate into the model the effect of terms of trade dynamics on long-term growth.…”

“…Considering the reserves policy chosen by the government and the inflationary impact of exchange rate depreciations, the external restriction manifests itself in two ways. First, in the existence of a limit to the sustainable external indebtedness, here defined in line with Lourenço et al (2011), and, therefore, in the sense such a limit maintains the growth of the Net External Liabilities (NEL) equal to or less than the nominal GDP expansion rate of the "rest of the world" (g*), where g* corresponds to the weighted aggregate of the country's main trading partners (export and/or import).…”

“…Besides incorporating the different income and price elasticities of exports and imports from the farming, industry and services sectors (in line with the propositions of ARAUJO and LIMA, 2007), we should highlight that according to its equation: a) a larger g* increases the g BP not only by an increase in x i in a magnitude that will depend on the income elasticities of demand for sectoral exports, but also by enabling that real GDP, imports and hence the Brazilian NEL to grow faster, without however causing an explosive increase in its participation in the agents' portfolio of "the rest of the world" (according to the model proposed by LOURENÇO et al, 2011); b) the higher the ratio of sectoral exports to net external liabilities (χ i ), the greater the g BP , the inverse being verified for the ratio between sectoral imports and net external liabilities (μ i ) (thus capturing the propositions of BHERING, 2013); and c) rather than a generic real exchange rate, the g BP depends on three different prices: the price of sectoral exports and imports and the relative prices (in constant US$) given by the terms of trade of each sector, capturing in this way not only Araujo's (2011) and Ferrari, Freitas and Barbosa Filho's (2013) propositions, but also Amado and Dávila-Fernández's (2014) ideas. Finally, the modeling of the price formation process and of the economy's inflation was disaggregated in the farming, industry, and services sectors, according to the weight of each one in the formation of the National Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA -Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo, in Portuguese).…”

“…In view of the existence of debates that aims to explain the causes of the trend of instability and low growth of the Brazilian economy over the last decades, the present paper aimed to investigate the following question: given the current profile of the specialization pattern of the productive structure and the country's commercial insertion, as well as the current management model of Brazilian macroeconomic policy, what is the growth potential of the Brazilian economy in the period 2016-2025? To support this study, a formal macroeconomic model oriented to projection was developed. As seen in section 1, this model was based directly on the recent theoretical developments of growth model restricted by the balance of payments, which are present in the works of Araujo and Lima (2007), Lourenço et al (2011), Bhering (2013, Amado and Dávila-Fernández (2014), Araujo (2011), andFerrari, Freitas, andBarbosa Filho (2013). In an attempt to make the behavior of the simulations conditioned on the current management model of Brazilian macroeconomic policy, the aforementioned model was also directly inspired by the work of Lourenço and Roos (2015).…”