A Discrete Stochastic Model to Determine Food Quality by Using Simulation: A Strawberry Case Study

Abstract

The agri-food supply chain (AFSC) sets a series of challenges in the production, storage, distribution, and transportation processes, as the market's requirements for fresh food combine food quality and safety attributes. This research suggests a discrete event modeling to study the behavior of food quality in all supply chains (SCs) in terms of temperature and time variables in a stochastic manner. The ProModel software was used to simulate strawberry quality in the SC, considering a distribution route to export the fruit from Mexico to the United States. The suggested model together with a computer simulation analyzes the fruit quality from two perspectives: with and without a cold chain (CC). The obtained results revealed that in the case of CC usage, when consumed the strawberry's average quality was 85%. In the approach without CC, the results revealed that when the strawberry arrives and remains in the distribution center, it loses more than 40% of its quality. This proposal may help those involved in the AFSC to make decisions that allow them to maximize quality and profit, minimize waste, improve distribution routes, and control stock levels.