Assessment of fire hazard weather indices in the eastern Amazon: a case study for different land uses

Cavalcante, Rosane Barbosa Lopes; Souza, Bruno Marchetti de; Ramos, Sílvio Júnio; Gastauer, Markus; Nascimento, Wilson R.; Caldeira, Cecílio Fróis; Souza‐Filho, Pedro Walfir M.

doi:10.1590/1809-4392202101172

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 36 publications

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“…Since soil moisture deficiency and droughts can influence the flammability of vegetation, the KBDI is used as a tool for identifying dry areas that are susceptible to the occurrence of wildfires (Keetch and Byram 1968). The KBDI has been applied in tropical areas (Dolling et al 2005;Taufik et al 2015) and specifically in the Amazon biome, with statistically significant results for predicting fire occurrence (Nogueira et al 2017;Cavalcante et al 2021). The main advantage of using this index is that it only requires two meteorological variables (daily maximum temperature and daily precipitation).…”

Section: Fire Risk Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional climate modeling in the Amazon basin to evaluate fire risk

et al. 2023

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Studies regarding deforestation, the hydrological cycle, climate change and fire weather can benefit from the detailed simulations provided by regional climate models (RCM). While much attention has been given to fire activity in the Amazon, few studies have used RCM runs to assess fire risk and variables associated to fire occurrence. We evaluated precipitation, temperature and a fire risk index from the ensemble of Eta model simulations coupled with three different global climate models for the Amazon basin. The RCM runs were compared to reanalysis data for the dry season from 1979 to 2005. The maximum and 2-m temperature fields were underestimated over the entire region, but showed a statistically significant spatial correlation with the reference data. Precipitation was overestimated over the Amazon, in accordance with the major sources of moisture analyzed. The Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI) was not significantly affected by the bias found in temperature and precipitation, and the ensemble improved relative to the individual member simulations. KBDI estimations performed better with the ensemble of the three evaluated members, however the Eta model showed some limitations. The validation of modeled fire risk could benefit from the use of satellite hotspot data. Furthermore, the KBDI can also be used in the assessment of how climate change interacts with fire activity in the Amazon region.

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Section: Fire Risk Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional climate modeling in the Amazon basin to evaluate fire risk

et al. 2023

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Web-portal development for rating weather fire hazards provided by weather services

Glagolev,

Kuldysheva,

Zhunusakunova

et al. 2024

Proceedings of the 2nd International Interdisciplinary Scientific Conference “Digitalization and Sustainability for Development

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Reliability of cross-regional applications of global fire danger models: a Peruvian case study

et al. 2022

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Background Fire danger indexes (FDIs) are used as proxies for fire potential and are often developed for specific locations. For practical purposes, the extrapolation of the underlying calculations into novel locations is common, but it is generally uncertain if the relationships between FDIs and fire potential observed in the environment in which the index was developed are equally relevant in others. For example, although a topographically, ecologically, and climatologically complex country, f ire danger forecasts in Peru use a standard set of nationwide thresholds applied to the Fire Weather Index. In this study, we validate the underlying assumption that weather-fire relationships are spatially uniform within Peru by (1) making cross-regional comparisons of the statistical distributions of four FDIs—Burning Index, Energy Release Component, Fire Weather Index, and Keetch-Byram Drought Index, and (2) making cross-regional comparisons of the expected daily MODIS hotspot count percentiles conditioned on FDI values. Results Significant regional differences in the distributions of daily FDI values were observed in every pair of regions within Peru, and with the exception of a pair of regions within the Amazon, little data ($$<90$$ < 90 days) were necessary to detect these differences. After controlling for FDI values and seasonal and annual effects with regressions, differences in predicted hotspot percentiles were common, differing by as much as 47 percentage points. Across the pairs of regions, the magnitude of these differences tended to decrease as climatic similarity increased, but some counterexamples were also apparent. Conclusions The noticeable differences in the distributions of daily FDI values suggest that a standard set of breakpoints may produce unreliable inferences regarding fire potential. We also find that even if the climatic conditions were similar across Peru, the same FDI values in two locations can produce substantially differing predictions of wildfire activity. This suggests that other factors besides FDI values can strongly mediate wildfire activity and that better fire potential predictions could be produced if these factors are accounted for.

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Assessment of fire hazard weather indices in the eastern Amazon: a case study for different land uses

Cited by 4 publications

References 36 publications

Regional climate modeling in the Amazon basin to evaluate fire risk

Regional climate modeling in the Amazon basin to evaluate fire risk

Web-portal development for rating weather fire hazards provided by weather services

Reliability of cross-regional applications of global fire danger models: a Peruvian case study

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