Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources of the Purus Basin in the southwestern Amazon

Dalagnol, Ricardo; Borma, Laura S.; Mateus, Pedro

doi:10.1590/1809-4392201601993

Cited by 23 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 45 publications

(47 reference statements)

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“…Similar to this work, climate change is projected to reduce the Tapajós river discharge for most of the scenarios, except for one model that showed a significant increase in the discharge (Mohor et al, 2015), and reductions in discharge were also found for Purus basin (Dalagnol et al, 2017).…”

Section: Rq 4 What Are the Potential Effects Of Secondary Regrowth Afsupporting

confidence: 64%

“…Also, except for leaf scale measurements that included some pioneer species (Kunert et al, 2015), literature still lacks reports of direct observations of fluxes in secondary vegetation areas in Amazonia. Additionally, studies that investigated the impacts of climate variability and land use conversion on river discharge (Dalagnol et al, 2017;Mohor et al, 2015;Siqueira Jr et al, 2015) did not consider the impact of secondary vegetation regrowth on the water cycle, which may become an important land use in the amazon in the near future (Aguiar et al, 2016).…”

Section: Knowledge Gapmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model has been applied successfully in Amazonian basins such as the Ji-Paraná (Rodriguez and Tomasella 2016), Madeira (Siqueira Jr et al, 2015), Purus (Dalagnol et al, 2017) and Tapajos (Mohor et al 2015) basins, as well as for flood forecasting in the Tocantins Basin (Falck et al, 2015).…”

Section: Distributed Hydrological Model -Mhd-inpementioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of land use and land cover change on the water cycle in the Amazon basin under a changing climate

Randow¹

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The Amazon forest is the largest remaining tropical rainforest on the planet. It is a host of large biodiversity and an ecosystem services provider, on a regional and a planetary scale. The ecosystem services provided by the forest are wood and non-wood products, divided in categories by Millennium Ecosystem Assessment as provisioning category, such as food, fresh water, fiber, fuel; or as regulating category, such as regulation of air quality, climate, water, erosion, pollination and natural hazard (Chiabai et al., 2011). Regarding the provision services, the presence of forest helps on the supplying of fresh water by increasing the infiltration, the residence time of water in the soil and consequently the recharge of the water table (Ellison et al., 2017). The river basin has the ability of regulating river flows through land-atmosphere connections caused mainly by the precipitation recycling that is heavily affected by the presence of the forest (Salazar et al., 2018). The Amazon watershed spans 6.9 million km 2 , connecting nine countries in South America-Brazil,

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Section: Rq 4 What Are the Potential Effects Of Secondary Regrowth Afsupporting

confidence: 64%

Section: Knowledge Gapmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of land use and land cover change on the water cycle in the Amazon basin under a changing climate

Randow¹

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“…The average temperature is 27 ºC. Minimum rainfall and temperature are in July (Dalagnol et al, 2017). 15 …”

Section: −1mentioning

confidence: 99%

Life cycle of bamboo in southwestern Amazon and its relation to fire events

Dalagnol¹,

Wagner²,

Galvão³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Bamboo-dominated forests comprise 1% of the world's forests. In southwest Amazon, a prior investigation mapped 16.15 million ha of bamboo-dominated forests by visual interpretation of Landsat and MODIS satellite images. They observed that the near infrared (NIR) wavelength was important to discriminate adult and dead bamboo areas, and estimated an average life cycle of 28 years for the Guadua spp. bamboo that dominate the region. In these bamboo areas, flowering a nd fruiting occur once in a lifetime before death, which produce massive quantities of necromass. The 'bamboo-fire hypothesis' argues 5 that increased dry fuel after die-off enhances fire probability, creating opportunities that favor bamboo. In this study, we developed and validated a method to map the bamboo die-off and its spatial distribution using satellite-derived time series of vegetation reflectance from MODIS (MAIAC) data and explored the fire hypothesis by evaluating the relationship between bamboo die-off and fires detected by MODIS thermal anomalies product in southwest Amazon. Our findings show that the NIR is the most sensitive spectral interval to characterize bamboo growth and cohort age. Automatic detection of historical The 'bamboo-fire hypothesis' was not fully supported, because most bamboo cohorts did not burn after die-off. Nonetheless, fire occurrence was 45% higher in dead than live bamboo in drought years, associated with ignition sources from land use, suggesting a bamboo-human-fire association. Since fire favors bamboo development, this may contribute to the maintenance 15 of high bamboo density where it is already present, the expansion of bamboo into adjacent bamboo-free forests, or even bring deadly consequences to these adjacent forests under climate change effects.

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“…Esses impactos foram detalhados no relatório do IPCC (2014) para a América do Sul, com destaque para a redução da umidade média dos solos, alterações nos padrões de precipitação principalmente nos fatores de variabilidade e intensidade, o que afetaria diretamente a disponibilidade e distribuição temporal das vazões superficiais (ANA, 2016). Alguns estudos em escala de bacias hidrográficas alinham-se com essas projeções globais, destaca-se Nóbrega et al (2011) na bacia do Rio Grande, sudeste do Brasil e Dalagnol et al (2017) na bacia do Rio Purus, sudoeste da Amazônia.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Simulação Hidrológica Ferramenta Para Gestão Dos Recursos Hídricos Em Função De Mudanças Climáticas Na Bacia Do Rio Riachão, Mg, Brasil

Sá

Kondo

Vieira

et al. 2019

NAT

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A simulação hidrológica de bacias hidrográficas tem se tornado uma ferramenta importante de planejamento e gestão de recursos hídricos, projetando-se inclusive a disponibilidade hídrica a partir das mudanças climáticas. Dessa forma, objetivou-se avaliar a eficiência do modelo hidrológico SWAT na simulação da vazão da bacia hidrográfica do rio Riachão, no Norte de Minas Gerais, sob impacto de cenários alternativos de elevação da temperatura média do ar. O modelo SWAT foi ajustado para o período de 01/01/2008 a 31/12/2014 e calibrado com os dados das vazões hidrometradas obtendo valores do coeficiente de eficiência Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) de 0,74 e 0,79 e tendência percentual (PBIAS) 15,45% e 16,72%, nas fases de calibração e validação, respectivamente. A disponibilidade de água superficial da bacia hidrográfica para comparação dos cenários foi calculada por meio da curva de permanência da vazão de referência Q90, obtendo-se o valor de 0,081 m3 s-1 para o modelo calibrado. Os cenários de aumento da temperatura média da bacia em 1,5; 2,0; 3,0; 4,0 e 5,0 °C levaram ao decréscimo da Q90 em 7,66; 8,98; 10,49; 14,06 e 17,76%, respectivamente.Palavras-chave: escoamento superficial; modelo SWAT; cenários climáticos; gerenciamento de recursos hídricos. HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION TOOL FOR MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE FUNCTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE RIACHÃO RIVER BASIN, MG, BRAZIL ABSTRACT: The hydrological simulation of watersheds becomes a major tool for planning and management of water resources, including water availability prediction from global climate change. Thus, the objective was to evaluate the efficiency of the SWAT hydrologic model to simulate the stream flow of Riachão river basin, North of Minas Gerais State, Brazil, under the impact of alternative scenarios with the increase in mean surface air temperature. The SWAT model was adjusted for 1/1/2008 to 12/31/2014 period and calibrated with data measurement obtaining values the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.74 and 0.79 and percent bias (PBIAS) of 15.45 and 16.72% was found to calibration and validation period, respectively. The surface water availability in the hydrographic basin was calculated by Q90 streamflow, with calibrated value of 0.081 m³s-1. The scenarios of increase in mean air temperature (1.5, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and 5.0 ºC) reduced Q90 by 7.66, 8.98, 10.49, 14.06 and 17.76%, respectively.Keywords: runoff; SWAT model; climate scenarios; water resource management.

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Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources of the Purus Basin in the southwestern Amazon

Cited by 23 publications

References 45 publications

Effects of land use and land cover change on the water cycle in the Amazon basin under a changing climate

Effects of land use and land cover change on the water cycle in the Amazon basin under a changing climate

Life cycle of bamboo in southwestern Amazon and its relation to fire events

Simulação Hidrológica Ferramenta Para Gestão Dos Recursos Hídricos Em Função De Mudanças Climáticas Na Bacia Do Rio Riachão, Mg, Brasil

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