Analysis of the impact of Fies on the stock returns from the higher education sector

Abstract

This article aims to analyze if the issuance of Series E Treasury Bonds (CFT-Es) generates abnormal returns in a higher education stock portfolio and verify if the Brazilian higher education market is efficient in its semi-strong form. The main purpose of CFT-Es is to transfer funds to institutions with the aim of providing finance to students enrolled in private universities. These issuances have effects on the capital market, considering that after the program began, the first initial public offering (IPO) of a Brazilian university occurred. Moreover, according to the National Institute for Educational Studies and Research Anísio Teixeira/Ministry of Education and Culture (Inep/MEC), Brazil has the largest market for higher education in Latin America. Several studies have been conducted to analyze the relationship between monetary policy and financial markets, but this has not occurred within the scope of fiscal policy. Such research is appropriate, considering the discussion on the need to contain government spending, but at the same time stimulate the Brazilian economy. The main contribution of the study is it indicates that the higher education market has tended towards the efficiency hypothesis, considering that in the first analysis, H0 was not rejected for 82% of the windows of events, and in the second analysis, H0 was not rejected for any of the windows of events, with there being no evidence of abnormal gains due to funds being released for the Student Finance Fund (Fies). The event study methodology was used to test the hypotheses of abnormal returns obtained due to CFT-Es being issued through the release of ordinances. A portfolio composed of higher education stocks was elaborated, weighted by the quarterly amount receivable from Fies for each institution, and covering 2009 to 2017. The results show that the stocks of institutions benefiting from Fies tend to react efficiently to CFT-E issuances authorized by the National Treasury.