Impact of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of a Cloud Forest Indicator Tree Species

Santos, Guilherme Neto dos; Silva, Ana Carolina da; Higuchi, Pedro

doi:10.1590/1806-908820200000032

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 35 publications

(44 reference statements)

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“…The main bulk of evidence of distributional changes comes from forecasting modelling studies (LoE2b), which overwhelmingly project range contractions, population declines, local extinctions or a combination of these in TMF tree communities (e.g. John et al ., 2020; Neto dos Santos, Silva & Higuchi, 2020; Rojas Briceño et al ., 2020) and herbaceous plants (Setyawan et al ., 2020). These predicted range contractions are partially explained by the topography of mountains themselves because as species migrate upwards, the available area decreases.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

et al. 2023

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In spite of their small global area and restricted distributions, tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and important ecosystem services providers, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. To protect and preserve these ecosystems better, it is crucial to inform the design and implementation of conservation policies with the best available scientific evidence, and to identify knowledge gaps and future research needs. We conducted a systematic review and an appraisal of evidence quality to assess the impacts of climate change on TMFs. We identified several skews and shortcomings. Experimental study designs with controls and long-term (≥10 years) data sets provide the most reliable evidence, but were rare and gave an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts on TMFs. Most studies were based on predictive modelling approaches, short-term (<10 years) and cross-sectional study designs. Although these methods provide moderate to circumstantial evidence, they can advance our understanding on climate change effects. Current evidence suggests that increasing temperatures and rising cloud levels have caused distributional shifts (mainly upslope) of montane biota, leading to alterations in biodiversity and ecological functions. Neotropical TMFs were the best studied, thus the knowledge derived there can serve as a proxy for climate change responses in under-studied regions elsewhere. Most studies focused on vascular plants, birds, amphibians and insects, with other taxonomic groups poorly represented. Most ecological studies were conducted at species or community levels, with a marked paucity of genetic studies, limiting understanding of the adaptive capacity of TMF biota. We thus highlight the long-term need to widen the methodological, thematic and geographical scope of studies on TMFs under climate change to address these uncertainties. In the short term, however, in-depth research in well-studied regions and advances in computer modelling approaches offer the most reliable sources of information for expeditious conservation action for these threatened forests.

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