Sensitivity of the sorghum yield to individual changes in climate parameters: modelling based approach

Grossi, Marine Cirino; Justino, Flávio; Rodrigues, Rui; Andrade, Cristiano Alberto de

doi:10.1590/1678-4499.0411

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Under low solar radiation, irrespective of water availability, canefw and its sensitivity were governed mainly by solar radiation. Similarly, Grossi et al [50] reported the higher sensitivity of sorghum yield to rainfall, solar radiation, and CO2 in DSSAT simulations. Hence, solar radiation, rainfall, and temperature have the greatest influence on canefw in crop models.…”

Section: Relationship Between Statistical Dispersion and Climatologicmentioning

confidence: 82%

Sensitivity Analysis of Plant- and Cultivar-Specific Parameters of APSIM-Sugar Model: Variation between Climates and Management Conditions

et al. 2019

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With increasing demand for food and energy, there is a great need for improving sugarcane productivity. New cultivars and management strategies can be assessed using process-based crop models. Information on cultivars needs to be updated frequently, but it is still limited in most crop models. Therefore, it is important to identify possible candidates for varietal parameterization and calibration. Because sensitivity analysis is computationally expensive, we used a less expensive emulator-based approach to conduct a global sensitivity analysis using the apsimr package and GEM-SA software. We studied the sensitivity of four yield outputs of the APSIM-Sugar model to 13 parameters in rainfed and irrigated conditions in Japan and Sri Lanka. Unlike previous studies, our aim was to give comprehensive insights into the variation in sensitivity due to variation in climate. The results confirmed distinct variation of parameter influence between climates and between management conditions. We identify possible candidates for parameterization and calibration of new cultivars for APSIM-Sugar under different environments, and show the effect of variation in climate on variation in parameter influence under different management conditions. It was confirmed that both radiation use efficiency and transpiration efficiency were sensitive and have to be examined to use new cultivars, though these are not listed as cultivar parameters.

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Section: Relationship Between Statistical Dispersion and Climatologicmentioning

confidence: 82%

Sensitivity Analysis of Plant- and Cultivar-Specific Parameters of APSIM-Sugar Model: Variation between Climates and Management Conditions

et al. 2019

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“…While we chose to use stepwise linear regression to determine the relationship between environmental factors and proso millet yield, readers should be aware that there are other methods that could be used such as crop simulation modeling. Crop simulation modeling has been used for sensitivity analysis to determine crop yield responses to varying environmental conditions (Grossi et al, 2015), but use of such models requires relatively large data sets of yield, yield components, leaf area development, biomass accumulation, and growth stage observations over a range of environmental conditions and management [1995][1996]; 13 kg ha −1 (1997); 19 kg ha −1 (2000); 17 kg ha −1 (1998)(1999)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016) 1998, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016. practices for model calibration and validation for a given soil type (Ma et al, 2011(Ma et al, , 2012. We determined that for our purposes it would be more efficient to use our data set with stepwise linear regression than to use it for calibrating and validating a crop simulation model.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water use and environmental parameters influence proso millet yield

Nielsen

Vigil

2017

Field Crops Research

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Proso millet (Panicum miliaceum L.) is a short-season, drought-tolerant C4 species capable of making use of limited available water supplies and is suitable for dryland crop rotations in the Central Great Plains. Previously published water use/yield production functions for proso millet have slopes lower than reported for other C4 species in this region. The objectives of this experiment were to determine the water-limited yield relationship for proso millet and to identify environmental factors that cause yields to be lower than predicted by the waterlimited yield relationship. Water use and yield data were obtained from a long-term crop rotation experiment conducted under dryland conditions in northeast Colorado from 1995 to 2016. Stepwise linear regression analysis was used to determine important environmental factors influencing yield. The water-limited yield relationship had a slope consistent with other C4 species in this region (32.57 kg ha −1 per mm of water use). A relationship based on growing season water use, plant available soil water at planting, precipitation received from 12 to 18 August, number days in July and August with maximum temperature greater than 36°C, daily average wind run and maximum wind gust during the week before swathing explained 88% of yield variability. The results of this analysis suggest that closing the yield gap for proso millet production could likely result from efforts to breed for enhanced shattering resistance and heat tolerance and from production methods that improve precipitation storage efficiency during the non-crop period prior to millet planting and increase available soil water at millet planting.

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“…Researchers from Australia, Germany, and the US have quantified the overall of extremes climate effects like drought, heat wave problems and precipitation on the crop yield variability of different staple crops around the world [7]. The year-to-year overall changes in the climatic factor in the growing season of maize, rice, sorghum, and wheat accounted the fluctuations of 20% to 49% of total yields [8]. Climatic extremes like hot and cold climates, drought, and heavy rainfall accounted for 18% to 43% of inter-annual variations in different crops yields [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Effects of High Precipitation in Texas on Rainfed Sorghum Yields

Sharma

Kannan

Cook

et al. 2019

Water

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Most of the recent studies on the consequences of extreme weather events on crop yields are focused on droughts and warming climate. The knowledge of the consequences of excess precipitation on the crop yield is lacking. We attempted to fill this gap by estimating reductions in rainfed grain sorghum yields for excess precipitation. The historical grain sorghum yield and corresponding historical precipitation data are collected by county. These data are sorted based on length of the record and missing values and arranged for the period 1973–2003. Grain sorghum growing periods in the different parts of Texas is estimated based on the east-west precipitation gradient, north-south temperature gradient, and typical planting and harvesting dates in Texas. We estimated the growing season total precipitation and maximum 4-day total precipitation for each county growing rainfed grain sorghum. These two parameters were used as independent variables, and crop yields of sorghum was used as the dependent variable. We tried to find the relationships between excess precipitation and decreases in crop yields using both graphical and mathematical relationships. The result were analyzed in four different levels; 1. Storm by storm consequences on the crop yield; 2. Growing season total precipitation and crop yield; 3. Maximum 4-day precipitation and crop yield; and 4. Multiple linear regression of independent variables with and without a principal component analysis (to remove the correlations between independent variables) and the dependent variable. The graphical and mathematical results show decreases in rainfed sorghum yields in Texas for excess precipitation could be between 18% and 38%.

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Sensitivity of the sorghum yield to individual changes in climate parameters: modelling based approach

Cited by 10 publications

References 15 publications

Sensitivity Analysis of Plant- and Cultivar-Specific Parameters of APSIM-Sugar Model: Variation between Climates and Management Conditions

Sensitivity Analysis of Plant- and Cultivar-Specific Parameters of APSIM-Sugar Model: Variation between Climates and Management Conditions

Water use and environmental parameters influence proso millet yield

Analysis of the Effects of High Precipitation in Texas on Rainfed Sorghum Yields

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