Temporal pattern of tuberculosis cure, mortality, and treatment abandonment in Brazilian capitals

Sousa, George Jó Bezerra; Garcês, Thiago Santos; Pereira, Maria Lúcia Duarte; Moreira, Thereza Maria Magalhães; Silveira, Germana Maria da

doi:10.1590/1518-8345.3019.3218

Cited by 32 publications

(50 citation statements)

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“…The model was adjusted assuming that the number of inflection points could vary from zero to two, which means a straight line or a line with three segments. A significance level of 5% was established in the time trend analysis (Sousa et al ., 2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal trends of Chagas disease-related mortality in the Northeast of Brazil, 2007–2017

Sousa¹,

Farias²,

Cestari³

et al. 2020

Parasitology

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Chagas disease (CD) is a neglected disease and endemic in Brazil. In the Brazilian Northeast Region, it affects millions of people. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the spatiotemporal trends of CD mortality in the Northeast of Brazil. This ecological study was designed, in which the unit of analysis was the municipality of the Brazilian northeast. The data source was the Information System of Mortality. It was calculated relative risk from socioeconomic characteristics. Mortality rates were smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayes method. Spatial dependency was analysed by the Global and Local Moran Index. Scan spatial statistics were also used. A total of 11 287 deaths by CD were notified in the study. An expressive parcel of this number was observed among 70-year-olds or more (n = 4381; 38.8%), no schooling (n = 4381; 38.8%), mixed-race (n = 4381; 62.3%), male (n = 6875; 60.9%). It was observed positive spatial autocorrelation, mostly in municipalities of the state of Bahia, Piauí (with high-high clusters), and Maranhão (with low-low clusters). The spatial scan statistics has presented a risk of mortality in 24 purely spatial clusters (P < 0.05). The study has identified the spatial pattern of CD mortality mostly in Bahia and Piauí, highlighting priority areas in planning and control strategies of the health services.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal trends of Chagas disease-related mortality in the Northeast of Brazil, 2007–2017

Sousa¹,

Farias²,

Cestari³

et al. 2020

Parasitology

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“…Thus, for the analysis of APC, the results with p<0.05 or 95% CI only positive (increasing trend) or only negative (decreasing trend) were considered significant. 13 The formation of purely spatial clusters of AIDS deaths was analyzed using the spatial statistical technique of Scan scanning, using the Software SatScan, v.9.6 ® . This method consists of a circular geographic window that moves through the area of interest and, in this scanning, the circle includes different sets of neighboring areas, which are considered candidates to represent a possible cluster of the event.…”

Section: Objective Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It was tested whether one or more points should be added to the linear model by Monte Carlo permutation, i.e., it was evaluated whether a line with multiple segments describes the model better than just a line. 13…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Padrão espaço-temporal da mortalidade por aids

Maranhão

Alencar

Ribeiro

et al. 2020

Rev enferm UFPE on line.

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Objetivo: analisar a distribuição espaço-temporal da mortalidade por aids. Método: trata-se de um estudo quantitativo, descritivo, que avaliou 959 óbitos por Aids notificados por meio do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. Analisou-se a tendência temporal por meio do software Joinpoint Regression Program, versão 4.6.0.0, e a varredura Scan foi empregada para avaliar a formação de clusters puramente espaciais de óbitos, considerando-se um nível de significância de 5%. Resultados: verifica-se que a maioria das mortes ocorreu entre indivíduos do sexo masculino (71,1%), com sete anos de estudo ou menos (79,6%), de raça parda (72,2%) e faixa etária de 30 a 39 anos (69,2%). Registrou-se um aumento estatisticamente significativo da mortalidade por Aids de 5,2% ao ano (p<0,001; IC95%: 1,0-9,5). Observa-se que a varredura espacial apontou para um cluster de óbitos estatisticamente significativo (p<0,0001), que abrangeu 18 municípios, incluindo Oeiras, Parnaíba e os da região metropolitana de Teresina. Conclusão: nota-se que a análise das tendências temporal e espacial demonstrou um aumento significativo da mortalidade ao longo do período estudado, bem como a presença de um aglomerado de óbitos que abrangeu 18 municípios, incluindo Teresina, Oeiras e Parnaíba. Descritores: HIV; Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida; Análise Espacial; Mapeamento Geográfico; Mortalidade; Epidemiologia.AbstractObjective: to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of AIDS mortality. Method: this is a quantitative, descriptive study, which evaluated 959 aids deaths reported through the Mortality Information System. The temporal trend was analyzed using the Joinpoint Regression Program, version 4.6.0.0, and the Scan scanning was used to evaluate the formation of purely spatial clusters of deaths, considering a significance level of 5%. Results: most deaths occurred among males (71.1%), with seven years of schooling or less (79.6%), of pardo race (72.2%) and age group from 30 to 39 years (69.2%). There was a statistically significant increase in AIDS mortality of 5.2% per year (p<0.001; 95% CI: 1.0-9.5). The spatial scanning pointed to a statistically significant cluster of deaths (p<0.0001), which covered 18 municipalities, including Oeiras, Parnaíba and those in the metropolitan region of Teresina. Conclusion: the analysis of temporal and spatial trends showed a significant increased mortality over the period studied, as well as the presence of a cluster of deaths that covered 18 municipalities, including Teresina, Oeiras and Parnaíba. Descriptors: HIV; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Spatial Analysis; Geographic Mapping; Mortality; Epidemiology.ResumenObjetivo: analizar la distribución espacio-temporal de la mortalidad por SIDA. Método: se trata de un estudio cuantitativo y descriptivo que evaluó 959 muertes por SIDA reportadas a través del Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad. La tendencia temporal se analizó utilizando el software Joinpoint Regression Program, versión 4.6.0.0, y el escaneo Scan se utilizó para evaluar la formación de grupos puramente espaciales de muertes, considerando un nivel de significancia del 5%. Resultados: se verificó que la mayoría de las muertes ocurrieron entre los varones (71,1%), con siete años de escolaridad o menos (79,6%), de raza parda (72,2%) y grupos de edad de 30 a 39 años (69,2%). Hubo un aumento estadísticamente significativo de la mortalidad por SIDA del 5,2% anual (p<0.001; IC del 95%: 1,0-9,5). Se observó que el escaneo espacial apuntaba a un grupo estadísticamente significativo de muertes (p<0.0001), que abarcaba 18 municipios, incluyendo Oeiras, Parnaíba y los de la región metropolitana de Teresina. Conclusión: se observa que el análisis de las tendencias temporales y espaciales mostró un aumento significativo de la mortalidad durante el período estudiado, así como la presencia de un grupo de muertes que abarcó 18 municipios, entre ellos Teresina, Oeiras y Parnaíba. Descriptores: VIH; Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida; Análisis Espacial; Mapeo Geográfico; Mortalidad; Epidemiología.

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“…The study aimed to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to gender and age group and to make predictions considering the current context in an endemic municipality of northeast Brazil. The study also showed a curious fact, that is, although tuberculosis most commonly affects men of the economically active and older adult age groups, there was a high incidence of the disease in women in the 15 to 59 years age group, an unusual phenomenon, compared with other studies carried out in Brazil and internationally [15][16][17][18][19][20].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 64%

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by gender and age in a high endemic city of Northeast Brazil: Are we achieving the disease elimination stage?

Andrade

Arroyo

Ramos

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Objective: to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to gender and age group and to make forecasts in an endemic municipality of northeast Brazil. Method: This was a Time Series study, carried out in a municipality in the northeast of Brazil. Population was composed of tuberculosis cases among residents of the municipality, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to gender and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and predictions of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average – Seasonal ARIMA model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models.Results: A total of 1,620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both genders, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend between the years 2002–2018, however, it is unlikely that there will be a significant fall in the disease before 2022.

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Temporal pattern of tuberculosis cure, mortality, and treatment abandonment in Brazilian capitals

Cited by 32 publications

References 35 publications

Spatiotemporal trends of Chagas disease-related mortality in the Northeast of Brazil, 2007–2017

Spatiotemporal trends of Chagas disease-related mortality in the Northeast of Brazil, 2007–2017

Padrão espaço-temporal da mortalidade por aids

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by gender and age in a high endemic city of Northeast Brazil: Are we achieving the disease elimination stage?

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