Estimating Brazilian states’ demands for intensive care unit and clinical hospital beds during the COVID-19 pandemic: development of a predictive model

Almeida, João Flávio de Freitas; Conceição, Samuel Vieira; Pinto, Luiz Ricardo; Horta, Cláudia Júlia Guimarães; Magalhães, Virgínia Silva; Campos, Francisco Carlos Cardoso de

doi:10.1590/1516-3180.2020.0517.r1.0212020

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(8 reference statements)

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“…Intense care units were suddenly overflowed with people in critical condition. Shortages of beds, ventilators, personal protective equipment and other supplies were reported all over the world (Sen-Crowe et al, 2021 ; Almeida et al, 2021 ; Ranney et al, 2020 ). Then, scientists were called to develop effective vaccines against the virus in a time span never seen before (Fang et al, 2022 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling and Closed-Loop Control of Admissions in a Vaccination Center Through Tropical Algebra

Morais

Maia

2023

J Control Autom Electr Syst

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This paper presents the development of a dynamical tropical algebra-based model of a vaccination center, which can be used to control and optimize the admission of users during center’s operation. In addition, an analysis of closed-loop control methods designed to maximize the system performance in terms of service rate and minimize users’ waiting time, while observing occupancy constraints due to social distancing protocols recommended by sanitary authorities due to Covid epidemic, is presented.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling and Closed-Loop Control of Admissions in a Vaccination Center Through Tropical Algebra

Morais

Maia

2023

J Control Autom Electr Syst

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“…However, decisions about the development and distribution of hospital beds have different dimensions, including the number of patients, hospital indicators such as bed occupancy rate, number of physicians, length of stay, age and sex structure of the population, and population growth. These factors affect the demand for hospital beds and constantly change the behavior of the health system [ 11 – 14 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a model for predicting hospital beds shortage and optimal policies using system dynamics approach

Najibi

Seyedi

Farhadi³

et al. 2022

BMC Health Serv Res

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Background Policymakers use simulation-based models to improve system feedback and model the reality of the problems in the system. This study uses the system dynamics approach to provide a model for predicting hospital bed shortages and determine the optimal policy in Shiraz, Southern Iran. Methods This study was designed based on Sterman's system dynamic modeling (SDM) process. Firstly, we determined the main variables affecting bed distribution using a mixed qualitative and quantitative study which includes scoping review, expert panel, Delphi, and DANP. Then, dynamic hypotheses were designed. Subsequently, we held several expert panels for designing the causal and stock-flow models, formulating and testing a simulation model, as well as developing various scenarios and policies. Results Dynamic modeling process resulted in four scenarios. All of the scenarios predicted a shortage of national hospital beds over a 20-year time horizon. Then, four policies were developed based on the changes in the number of beds and capacity of home care services; finally, the optimal policy was determined. Conclusions Due to the high cost of setting up hospital beds, developing and supporting cost-effective home care services, strengthening the insurance coverage of these services, and improving the quantity and quality of community care, considering the real needs of the community could be considered as an optimal option for the future of the city.

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Dynamic transmission modeling of COVID-19 to support decision-making in Brazil: A scoping review in the pre-vaccine era

Berg de Almeida,

Mendes Simon,

Maria Bagattini

et al. 2023

PLOS Glob Public Health

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Brazil was one of the countries most affected during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a pre-vaccine era, and mathematical and statistical models were used in decision-making and public policies to mitigate and suppress SARS-CoV-2 dispersion. In this article, we intend to overview the modeling for COVID-19 in Brazil, focusing on the first 18 months of the pandemic. We conducted a scoping review and searched for studies on infectious disease modeling methods in peer-reviewed journals and gray literature, published between January 01, 2020, and June 2, 2021, reporting real-world or scenario-based COVID-19 modeling for Brazil. We included 81 studies, most corresponding to published articles produced in Brazilian institutions. The models were dynamic and deterministic in the majority. The predominant model type was compartmental, but other models were also found. The main modeling objectives were to analyze epidemiological scenarios (testing interventions’ effectiveness) and to project short and long-term predictions, while few articles performed economic impact analysis. Estimations of the R0 and transmission rates or projections regarding the course of the epidemic figured as major, especially at the beginning of the crisis. However, several other outputs were forecasted, such as the isolation/quarantine effect on transmission, hospital facilities required, secondary cases caused by infected children, and the economic effects of the pandemic. This study reveals numerous articles with shared objectives and similar methods and data sources. We observed a deficiency in addressing social inequities in the Brazilian context within the utilized models, which may also be expected in several low- and middle-income countries with significant social disparities. We conclude that the models were of great relevance in the pandemic scenario of COVID-19. Nevertheless, efforts could be better planned and executed with improved institutional organization, dialogue among research groups, increased interaction between modelers and epidemiologists, and establishment of a sustainable cooperation network.

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Estimating Brazilian states’ demands for intensive care unit and clinical hospital beds during the COVID-19 pandemic: development of a predictive model

Cited by 4 publications

References 21 publications

Modelling and Closed-Loop Control of Admissions in a Vaccination Center Through Tropical Algebra

Modelling and Closed-Loop Control of Admissions in a Vaccination Center Through Tropical Algebra

Development of a model for predicting hospital beds shortage and optimal policies using system dynamics approach

Dynamic transmission modeling of COVID-19 to support decision-making in Brazil: A scoping review in the pre-vaccine era

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