Determinants of homicides in the state of Bahia, Brazil, in 2009

Abstract

Purpose: To carry out a study of association between socioeconomic and demographic factors and homicides in general population, in the state of Bahia, in 2009. Methods: This is an ecological study. The data were collected from the database of the Information System about Mortality of the Ministry of Health, from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and the Institute of Applied Economic Research. The Global Moran index was calculated for the detection of spatial autocorrelation, and the Local Moran index was calculated for the detection of spatial Clusters. The transformation in the variable answer (homicides rates) was performed and it was shaped using the Conditional Autoregressive Model. Results: The data showed spatial autocorrelation. Two clusters of municipalities with high rates of homicides were identified, one located predominantly in the Greater Metropolitan Region of Salvador and the other in the South Region of Bahia, especially Eunápolis and Lauro de Freitas, which had the highest rates. The Average Residents Variables, local GDP and the Percentage of Illiteracy presented an inverse association with homicide rates, and the variables Firjan's municipal development index of work and income. Enrolment in high school and the Average of Bolsa Família were directly associated. Conclusions: The urbanization process, in most cases, not controlled by the State, in most cases, made the cities bigger and with better socioeconomic conditions, attraction centers for people with different socioeconomic levels, increasing the social inequality among the residents of these regions, with parallel increase in homicide rates.

Análise espacial dos homicídios intencionais em João Pessoa, Paraíba, 2011-2016*

“…10 This movement towards the outskirts probably occurred because of the unequal distribution of State interventions, following the global trend of violent events, such as intentional homicides tending to occur in economically disadvantaged places. [2][3][4]16,18,19,[23][24][25][26][27][28][29] Although the data used in this study were retrieved from official information systems, they are subject to information bias, given the process that takes place between the occurrence of the event and the data being input on the systems. The first limitation of this study is underreporting which is reflected in the reduction in the number of deaths reported because of burials taking place without the required notification being made.…”

“…15,20,21 In addition to their epidemiological usefulness, these studies also corroborate the information produced by smoothed maps, by allowing visual observation and interpretation of the spatial pattern of events, thus contributing to more rational decision-making by the public sector. [23][24][25]27,28 Actions can be planned in a more egalitarian manner, targeting human, material and technological resources to the most problematic areas, contributing to greater efficiency in the use of public resources. 20,21 The usefulness of the Bayesian method associated with Moran's spatial statistics in assisting the identification of areas of risk of occurrence of diseases and events has been highlighted in other studies.…”

“…The study found that the process of disorderly urbanization, although it has lead to cities becoming larger and having better socioeconomic conditions, has contributed to increasing social inequality among the inhabitants of these places, resulting in increased homicide rates. 23 Another study conducted in Fortaleza in 2014, showed that homicide mortality was associated with high levels of poverty and uncontrolled urbanization. 27 Research on the spatial pattern of homicides in the municipality of São Paulo reported as long ago as 1999 that the peripheral regions and the former center of the city where poverty indices are higher accounted for the largest number of homicides.…”

Muertes ocultas: estimaciones corregidas de homicidios en Bahía, Brasil, 1996-2015

“…Otros estudios (14,15,16) destacan que la intensificación de este fenómeno en ciertas localidades del estado se potencia, probablemente, por la expansión de la actividad turística y recuperación de la economía relacionada con la producción de cacao, que atrae migrantes y genera oportunidades, pero también aumenta los problemas sociales y conflictos. A pesar de que el riesgo de muerte por homicidio se encuentre vastamente diseminado por todo el territorio bahiano, en los municipios de la franja costera, la región metropolitana (este) y en el triángulo formado por Porto Seguro, Vitória da Conquista e Itabuna, el fenómeno cobra perfiles alarmantes.…”

Homicídio e lesão corporal em Itaboraí, Brasil: análise em diferentes escalas

“…The national journals have been showing falls in the mortality rates for murders in the large Brazilian metropolises 19,20 and increases in cities around the capitals metropolitan regionssuch as is the case for Itaboraí just like the cities in the outskirts of the states and in the border regions [21][22][23][24][25] . It would be important to monitor whether the occurrence of a decline in the rates observed in the municipality studied was consistent.…”