Study on rare and endangered plants under climate: maxent modeling for identifying hot spots in northwest China

Zhang, Hua; Hong-yan, Zhao

doi:10.1590/01047760202127012667

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…All the above variables are resampled in ArcGIS software, and the raster layer with a uni ed resolution of 1,000 m is converted to ASCII format using the Asia North Albers Equal Area Conic projection coordinate system. [32]. The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model 2 Medium Resolution (BCC-CSM2-MR) of the National (Beijing) Climate Center Climate System Model and the Center National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) and CNRM-CM6-1 jointly developed by the Center National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) and the Cerfacs [33] were applied in this study.…”

Section: Species Distribution Modeling Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Climate, Landscape and Economical Changes Increase the Exposure of Echinococcus Spp.

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background: Echinococcosis is a global enzootic disease influenced by different biological and environmental factors. We investigated do and patient populations, and climatic and environmental factors affecting the distribution of Echinococcosis in Gansu Province, China. The risk to people in urban areas is increasing with climate, landscape, and lifestyle changes.Methods: We conducted a retrospective descriptive study using hospitalization case data (2000 to 2020) in Lanzhou. All hospital discharges with echinococcosis diagnosis placed in the first diagnostic position were analyzed, and clinical characteristics were described. We mapped the addresses of 626 hospitalized echinococcosis patients and distribution dogs and studied the effects of different temperature models, mean annual rainfall and slope, latitude, land covers, closeproximity to travel routes, livestock, and dog densities on the occurrence of echinococcosis using a geographical information systems approach. The spatial and temporal distribution of patient epidemiological data combined with infected dog fecal incidence from the scientific literature was also evaluated. We assessed model performance and variable importance to discover the relation of these variables to the exposure of the Echinococcus spp. niche. Then, we imported the resulting niche model into future global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios.Results: The average cost of treating a case of echinococcosis in Gansu Province was $24,370.2 and showed an increasing trend during the study period. The cost of treating a case of echinococcosis in different counties was significantly negative with their corresponding gross domestic product (GDP). The three factors with the strongest correlation to echinococcosis infection probability were (1) GLC (56.6%), (2) annual precipitation (Bio12, 21.2%), and (3) mean temperature of the Wettest Quarter (Bio12, 8.5% of variations). The risk map showed that areas characterized by Echinococcus spp were mainly located east southern Gansu Province with the highest probability, followed by areas in the center of Gansu Province. When comparing the possible future distribution with the present distribution of Echinococcus spp., an increasing tendency was observed in the highly suitable areas of Echinococcus spp., indicating that environmental changes would affect the distribution of Echinococcus spp.Conclusion: This study provides valuable information for cost-effective public health programs to control echinococcosis in Gansu Province and elsewhere. Raising travelers’ disease awareness and preventive health habits is an urgent agenda and most efficient-reaching action with a small investment.

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Section: Species Distribution Modeling Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Climate, Landscape and Economical Changes Increase the Exposure of Echinococcus Spp.

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…At present, there are various species distribution models based on ecological niches (Elith et al., 2006), which have been widely used in predicting suitable distribution areas for endangered plants. For example, the maximum entropy model MaxEnt (Abdelaal et al., 2019; Gao et al., 2022; Ma & Zhang, 2012; Zhang et al., 2023; Zhang & Zhao, 2001), the ruleset genetic algorithm model GARP (Li et al., 2023), and the BIOCLIM model (Semwal et al., 2021) and so on. Among them, MaxEnt, the maximum entropy model, is an intensively used prediction model in recent years, and its prediction results are the most accurate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the potential distribution of 12 threatened medicinal plants on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau, with a maximum entropy model

Yang,

Zhu,

Song

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change is a vital driver of biodiversity patterns and species distributions, understanding how organisms respond to climate change will shed light on the conservation of endangered species. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential suitable area of 12 threatened medicinal plants in the QTP (Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau) under the current and future (2050s, 2070s) three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The results showed that the climatically suitable habitats for the threatened medicinal plants were primarily found in the eastern, southeast, southern, and some parts of the central regions on the QTP. Moreover, 25% of the threatened medicinal plants would have reduced suitable habitat areas within the next 30–50 years in the different future global warming scenarios. Among these medicinal plants, RT (Rheum tanguticum) would miss the most habitat (98.97%), while the RAN (Rhododendron anthopogonoides) would miss the least habitat (10.15%). Nevertheless, 33.3% of the threatened medicinal plants showed an increase in their future habitat area because of their physiological characteristics which are more adaptable to a wide range of climates. The climatic suitable habitat for 50% of the threatened medicinal plants would migrate to higher altitudes or higher latitudes regions. This study provides a data foundation for the conservation of biodiversity and wild medicinal plants on the QTP.

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“…The MaxEnt model, as a machine language for studying species distribution models, has the advantages of requiring a smaller sample size (Guisan et al, 2007) and resulting in greater accuracy (Elith et al, 2006). It is widely employed in biodiversity assessment, nature reserve design and endangered species protection (Zhang & Zhao, 2021), species conservation habitat selection (Zhu et al, 2018), environmental risk assessment (Liu et al, 2017) In this research, dominant environmental variables affecting the geographical distribution of ve species of Caragana in the north temperate zone were identi ed through a multivariate statistical analysis screening. The selected environmental variable data and geographic distribution data were imported into the MaxEnt model to analyze the geographic distribution patterns of ve northern temperate species of Caragana under two extreme climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) under current and future atmospheric circulation models (BCC_CSM1.1 and IPSLCM5A-LR).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation and prediction of the geographical distribution of five Caragana species in the north temperate zone

Jiang

Yang

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Shrub encroachment caused by Caragana does harm to grassland ecosystem. However, based on the current limited understanding of ecosystems and future climatic conditions, the future distribution and dynamics of grassland-shrubland still need further research. In this paper, multivariate statistical analysis was used to identify the dominant environmental causes affecting the geographic range of five species of Caragana in the north temperate zone. Through the MaxEnt model, the current and future geographical distributions of them were simulated by combining 11 environmental variables and 1124 geographical distribution data points selected to analyze their geographical distribution patterns and dynamic changes. The results show the following: (1) The distribution patterns of the five Caragana species in the north temperate zone are predominantly governed by the abiotic factors of temperature and precipitation. (2) Caragana’s suitable habitat has a tendency to extend northward in the future. (3) As greenhouse gas emissions intensify, the habitable zone of C. microphylla and C. korshinskiiwill expand gradually, while the distribution probability of C. stenophylla, C. spinifera and C. pygmaea will shrink significantly in 60%-80% of the area, and the habitable area will fluctuate sharply. (4) The future distribution of suitable habitats for Caragana is concentrated in central Mongolia and around Lake Baikal in Russia. This research could offer a reference for the protection of grassland resources, ensuring sustainable development under the action of shrub encroachment.

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Study on rare and endangered plants under climate: maxent modeling for identifying hot spots in northwest China

Cited by 6 publications

References 40 publications

How Climate, Landscape and Economical Changes Increase the Exposure of Echinococcus Spp.

How Climate, Landscape and Economical Changes Increase the Exposure of Echinococcus Spp.

Predicting the potential distribution of 12 threatened medicinal plants on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau, with a maximum entropy model

Simulation and prediction of the geographical distribution of five Caragana species in the north temperate zone

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