Avaliação de políticas de combate à pobreza no Brasil: aplicação do método de Controle Sintético Generalizado para o Fecop no Ceará

Abstract

Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é estimar o impacto da criação do Fundo Estadual de Combate à Pobreza (FECOP), em 2003, sobre indicadores de pobreza no Ceará. A aplicação empírica diferencia-se pelo uso do método de Controle Sintético Generalizado, recentemente desenvolvido por Xu (2017). Com dados em nível estadual para o período de 1981 a 2014, os resultados indicam um impacto estatisticamente significativo do FECOP sobre a redução da pobreza e extrema pobreza no Ceará a partir de 2008. Adicionalmente, realizou-se uma análise comparativa dos estados utilizados na simulação do controle sintético com o Ceará, no que diz respeito ao número e valor total de benefícios do Programa Bolsa Família. O intuito é apresentar evidências de que os efeitos encontrados não estão sendo afetados pelos repasses do programa federal.

Social fund and infant mortality: Evidence from an anti‐poverty policy in Northeast Brazil

“…Although the FECEPs were designed to last a decade, Constitutional Amendment No. 67 extended this public policy indefinitely on December 22, 2010 (Silva et al, 2021;Souza et al, 2017). To finance the FECEP, the legislation authorized subnational governments to implement an additional tax of up to 2% on the ICMS (Imposto sobre Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços) rate on superfluous products and services (such as cigarettes, alcoholic beverages, air vehicles, boats, jewelry, among others) or on the tax that replaces it, as provided in art.…”

“…Revenues weighted by the poor population increase over time, suggesting that states have more resources to invest in poverty reduction initiatives. Over two decades, the region has Note: Elaborated based on Silva et al (2021). The states of Acre, Amapá, Pará, Roraima, and Santa Catarina did not implement the FECEP; therefore, they were not listed.…”

“…These resources typically come from multilateral and bilateral donations and taxes on luxury goods and services (Djimeu, 2014; Jorgensen & Van Domelen, 1999; Van Domelen, 2002). The main characteristics of policies of this nature include self‐financing capacity, which means that funding does not depend directly on the local government, as well as self‐management and the imposition of conditions on both policymakers and beneficiaries (Fiszbein & Schady, 2009; Silva et al., 2021; Souza et al., 2017). Since its introduction, this social financing model has been distinguished by its effectiveness in achieving results by quickly, visibly, and efficiently contributing to improving the living standards of low‐income families in developing countries (Batkin, 2001; Tendler, 2000).…”

“…In previous work, Silva et al. (2021) estimated the effects of this reform on several poverty measures using the synthetic control method for the Ceara state. They documented significant reductions in the prevalence of poverty.…”

“…To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to examine the effects of FECEP on infant health in Brazil. In previous work, Silva et al (2021) estimated the effects of this reform on several poverty measures using the synthetic control method for the Ceara state. They documented significant reductions in the prevalence of poverty.…”