Previsões de Precipitação de Modelos Atmosféricos como Subsídio à Operação de Sistemas de Reservatórios

Bozzini, Pedro Ludovico; Júnior, Arisvaldo Vieira Méllo

doi:10.1590/0102-7786351032

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…On the other hand, the correlations found between the out ows and the conventional stream ow gauge station Q3 were signi cantly lower when compared with Q1 and Q2, particularly when considering the yearly period (r = 0.62), being a moderate correlation according to the classi cation of Bozzoni (2020).…”

Section: { }mentioning

confidence: 82%

“…The classi cation of the correlation between the variables was de ned based on the proposition presented by Bozzoni et al (2020), according to which the correlation is moderate for r values above 0.5, strong for values above 0.7 and very strong for values above 0.9. The test assesses the following hypotheses: H 0 -the data are independent and equally distributed (there is no trend) and H 1 -the data have a monotonic trend over time (there is a trend).…”

Section: Exploratory Analysis Of the Relationship Between Owsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Flow Behavior as Influenced by Reservoir with Flow Regularization

Generoso

Silva

Amorim

et al. 2022

Water Resour Manage

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Understanding the behavior of reservoirs with ow regularization formed by hydroelectric power plants is essential for assessing water availability and, consequently, for planning the use of water resources, especially in downstream positions. The operationalization of reservoirs can be in uenced both by climatic characteristics and by the consequences resulting from human actions in the basin. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the existing relationships between the in ows and out ows of a reservoir, as well as with the conventional stream ow gauge stations downstream of the dam. In addition, the aim was also to evaluate trends in the behavior of minimum, average and maximum ows, in the post-operation period, considering the characteristics of rainfall and irrigation in the region. The results indicated that reservoir operationalization is strongly related to the behavior of in ows, especially when considering analyses in quarterly periods, also affecting the ow in the stream ow gauge stations downstream. Moreover, a reduction was also veri ed in all variables analyzed related to in ows and out ows, as well as in the stations downstream of the dam, except for the maximum ow in the station farthest from the reservoir, which showed a stationary behavior. The reductions observed in the ows may be related to the increase of almost three times in the area irrigated by center pivot in the basin; however, the same cannot be said in relation to the annual rainfall regime of the region, since it showed a stationary behavior for most stations evaluated.

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Section: { }mentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Exploratory Analysis Of the Relationship Between Owsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Flow Behavior as Influenced by Reservoir with Flow Regularization

Generoso

Silva

Amorim

et al. 2022

Water Resour Manage

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“…KGE was firstly proposed by Gupta et al (2009) as an improvement of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and later modified by Kling et al (2012). The coefficient has been applied to evaluate projected rainfall in Brazil, showing satisfactory results (Baez-Villanueva et al, 2018;Bozzini and Mello Junior, 2020). Eq.…”

Section: Methods Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Bias Corrected Climate Change Projections in the Piracicaba River Basin

Billerbeck

Silva

Marcellini

et al. 2021

Rev. bras. meteorol.

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Regional climate models (RCM) are the main tools for climate change impacts assessment in hydrological studies. These models, however, often show biases when compared to historical observations. Bias Correction (BC) are useful techniques to improve climate projection outputs. This study presents a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to compare combinations of RCM with selected BC methods. The comparison was based on the modified Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE’). The criteria evaluated the general capability of models in reproducing the observed data main statistics. Other criteria evaluated were the relevant aspects for hydrological studies, such as seasonality, dry and wet periods. We applied four BC methods in four RCM monthly rainfall outputs from 1961 to 2005 in the Piracicaba river basin. The Linear Scaling (LS) method showed higher improvements in the general performance of the models. The RCM Eta-HadGEM2-ES, corrected with Standardized Reconstruction (SdRc) method, achieved the best results when compared to the observed precipitation. The bias corrected projected monthly precipitation (2006-2098) preserved the main signal of climate change effects when compared to the original outputs regarding annual rainfall. However, SdRc produced significant decrease in monthly average rainfall, higher than 45% for July, August and September for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

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