Estudo de Caso de um Distúrbio Ondulatório de Leste sobre o Estado do Rio Grande do Norte - Brasil

Neves, Danielson Jorge Delgado; Alcântara, Clênia Rodrigues; Souza, Ênio Pereira de

doi:10.1590/0102-778631231420150075

Cited by 12 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Physically, these are movements of mass aggregated to falls of rocks, collapse of slopes and displacement of debris (Cruden, ). In view of this, communities and homes are put at risk of collapsing, streets and avenues undergo erosive processes and human lives are endangered (Neves et al ., ). In summary, these hydrological and geological processes lead to human losses, severe economic damage, and social well‐being (Nordhaus, ; Kousky, ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

What is the return period of intense rainfall events in the capital cities of the northeast region of Brazil?

Oliveira

Lima

2019

Atmospheric Science Letters

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The northeast of Brazil is characterized by a semiarid climate, in which there is a considerable temporal and spatial variability in the distribution of rainfall. In this region, the occurrence of intense rainfall events (IREs) causes severe damage to the population, given that the rampant urbanization and land use processes make cities more susceptible to harmful consequences. Thus, the objective of this study is to estimate the period and the level of return of IREs in the capital cities of the northeast Brazil. For that end, observed data from weather stations of the National Institute of Meteorology for the period from 1988 to 2017 were used. We defined thresholds based on the excesses above the mean and inserted the data in the generalized Pareto distribution in order to obtain diagnostics of future estimates. Results showed that return periods were surpassed in seven of the nine capital cities in 2018. Furthermore, the estimates for IREs with a return period of 5, 10, and 100 years were higher if compared to the return period of 1 year. The results found in this study are extremely relevant for the understanding of the occurrence of these events and also serve as a tool for decision-making and the elaboration of policies aimed at minimizing the impacts of such events. K E Y W O R D S extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, natural disasters

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

What is the return period of intense rainfall events in the capital cities of the northeast region of Brazil?

Oliveira

Lima

2019

Atmospheric Science Letters

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“…As previously mentioned, the SFHR1 subregion differs from the other groups probably because it is located in the southern coast of the Northeast Brazil, which is more influenced by the occurrence of easterly wave disturbances (Yamazaki and Rao, 1977; Neves et al ., 2016), frontal systems (Kousky, 1979; Andrade et al ., 2012), the South Atlantic subtropical high (Kousky, 1980; Moscati, 1991) and sea breezes. On the other hand, the SFHR2 subregion is mostly located in the semiarid region, therefore showing lower rainfall volumes in comparison with SFHR3 and SFHR4, although they have a typically tropical pattern with one rainy season and another dry.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall and streamflow extreme events in the São Francisco hydrographic region

Oliveira

Lima

Spyrides

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Extreme rainfall and streamflow events are becoming increasingly more relevant to discussions concerning potential climate changes on planet earth. In most cases, impacts related to the occurrence of such phenomena can be amplified due to the lack of planning and structure. In this context, the main objective of the study is to estimate the period and level of return of intense rainfall events in homogeneous subregions of the São Francisco hydrographic region, as well as to define which of these subregions are most vulnerable to the recurrence of these episodes. We used rainfall data from 105 rain gauges and streamflow data from 103 stream gauges comprising the years from 1988 to 2017. Through cluster analysis, four homogeneous rainfall subregions were defined and validated by the silhouette index, capable of identifying misallocated stations in the clustering process. A generalized Pareto distribution from the extreme value theory was used to calculate the period and level of return of intense rainfall events in each subregion. We then related the retrieved estimates with information about the drainage network, streamflow, land use and occupation, and socioeconomic and demographic factors in the watershed region. Results indicated the existence of subregions vulnerable to hydrological and geological processes intensified due to human activity and the recurrence of hydrometeorological phenomena. The scenarios found for the recurrence of intense rainfall events indicated the severity to which some subregions may be subjected, moreover, they reinforce the need for the development of public policies for the prevention and minimization of impacts.

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“…A gênese dos DOLs está relacionada a perturbações barométricas, no campo de propagação dos alísios, geradas pela ZCIT ou por frentes frias que atingem menores latitudes. Essas ondas atmosféricas favorecem a convecção na área do cavado, onde ocorrem preferencialmente as precipitações mais intensas (Molion e Bernardo, 2002;Machado et al, 2012;Neves et al, 2016).…”

Section: Sistemas Atmosféricos Atuantes Em Recifeunclassified

Análise espacial da precipitação e possíveis fatores que contribuem para sua espacialização em Recife-PE

Anjos¹,

Wanderley²,

Nóbrega³

2020

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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A distribuição espaço-temporal da precipitação está relacionada a uma interação complexa entre os fatores geográficos. Dentre esses fatores, podem-se destacar o relevo, direção predominante dos ventos, declividade, orientação das encostas, vegetação, urbanização, dentre outras condicionantes que podem atuar de acordo com a escala de análise e o sistema atmosférico atuante. Partindo desse pressuposto, o município de Recife possui particularidades que favorece uma distribuição espacial das chuvas de maneira desigual, levantando alguns questionamentos acerca dos fatores geográficos que interferem nessa variabilidade espacial. Levando em consideração essas afirmações, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi avaliar quais os fatores geográficos podem interferir na distribuição espacial das chuvas em Recife, de acordo com médias anuais de precipitação. Os dados utilizados foram do Centro de Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMANDEN) e as ferramentas utilizadas foram softwares de geoprocessamento, assim como programas de modelagem de fluxo dos ventos. Os resultados apresentaram que condicionantes como o relevo, direção predominante dos ventos, orientação das encostas, tipos de chuvas são alguns dos condicionantes, dentre os apresentados nessa pesquisa, que apresentaram correlações espaciais com a variabilidade da precipitação. Além disso, a modelagem do fluxo de ar, permitiu identificar as áreas de maior advecção e a pressão do ar sobre as encostas, possibilitando a correlação dessas variáveis com a distribuição espacial das chuvas. alavras-chave: conforto térmico, ciclovia, temperatura efetiva. Spatial analysis of precipitation and possible factors that contribute to its spatialization in Recife-PEA B S T R A C TThe spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation is related to complex interaction between geographic factors. Among these factors, we can highlight the relief, winds direction, slope, aspect, vegetation, urbanization and other conditions that it can act according to the scale of analysis and the atmospheric system. The municipality of Recife has particularities that it enable a high spatial and temporal rainfall variability, raising some questions about the geographic factors that interfere in this variability. Thus, this study aims to evaluate which geographic factors can to interfere in the spatial distribution of rainfall in Recife, according to annual average precipitation. The precipitation data used were from the National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alerting (CEMANDEN) and the tools used were geoprocessing softwares, as well as wind flow modeling programs. The results showed that conditions such as relief, predominant direction of the winds, aspect, rainfall types are some of the factors that it was analyzed in this present study that presented spatial correlations with variability of rainfall . In addition, the airflow modeling it allowed to identify areas of higher advection and air pressure on the slopes, it allowing the correlation of these variables with the spatial distribution of rainfall.Keywords: rain, modelling, relief, wind.

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Estudo de Caso de um Distúrbio Ondulatório de Leste sobre o Estado do Rio Grande do Norte - Brasil

Cited by 12 publications

References 20 publications

What is the return period of intense rainfall events in the capital cities of the northeast region of Brazil?

What is the return period of intense rainfall events in the capital cities of the northeast region of Brazil?

Rainfall and streamflow extreme events in the São Francisco hydrographic region

Análise espacial da precipitação e possíveis fatores que contribuem para sua espacialização em Recife-PE

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