A pandemia de COVID-19: desafios na avaliação do impacto de problemas complexos e multidimensionais na saúde de populações

Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro

doi:10.1590/0102-311xpt045322

Cited by 10 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 8 publications

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“…However, the non-white population experienced an extra burden, either showing expected deaths from diseases other than COVID-19 or more likely to experience death-cause misdiagnosis. This is not surprising, unfortunately, as well exposed by several studies [44][45][46][47].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: years 2020 and 2021

Colonia

Cardeal

Oliveira

et al. 2022

Preprint

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We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Brazil for 2020 and 2021 years. We used mortality data (2015-2021) from the Health Ministry, Brazil government, to fit linear mixed models for forecasting baseline deaths under non-pandemic conditions. An advantage of the linear mixed model is the flexibility to capture year-trend while dealing with the correlations among death counts over time. Following a specified model building strategy, estimation of all-cause excess deaths at the country level and stratified by sex, age, ethnicity and region of residence, from March 2020 to August 2021. We also considered the estimation of excess deaths by specific causes. Estimated all-cause excess deaths was 199,108 (95% PI: 171,007; 227,209, P-Score=17.3%) for weeks 10-53, 2020, and 417,167 (95% PI: 372,075; 462,259, P-Score=50.1%) for weeks 1-32, 2021. P-scores ranged from 5.4% (RS, South) to 36.2% (AM, North) in 2020 and from 29.3% (AL, Northeast) to 94.9%$ (RO, North) in 2021. Differences among men (18.9%) and women (14.2%) appeared in 2020 only, and the P-scores were about 51% for both sexes in 2021. Except for youngsters (<20 years old), all adult age groups were badly hit, especially those from 40 to 79 years old. In 2020, the Indigenous+East Asian population had the highest P-score (27%), and the Black population suffered the greatest impact (61.9%) in 2021. The pandemic impact had enormous regional heterogeneity and substantial differences according to socio-demographic factors, mainly during the first wave, showing some population strata benefits from the social distancing measures when able to adhere to them. In the second wave, the burden was very high for all but extremely high for some, highlighting our society needs to tackle the health inequalities experienced by groups of different socio-demographic and economic status.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: years 2020 and 2021

Colonia

Cardeal

Oliveira

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Global epidemiology and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Bernal‐Silva¹,

Torres-Díaz²,

Comas‐García³

2023

Mathematical Modelling, Simulations, and AI for Emergent Pandemic Diseases

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Measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic: medico-legal and public health implications

Cioffi

Cecannecchia

2022

Cad. Saúde Pública

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The editorial by Werneck 1 highlighted the weaknesses of health systems in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. We wanted to draw attention to a very topical problem which, in our opinion, is directly related to damages to health systems caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.In 2021, it became clear that a major problem of the COVID-19 pandemic was the progressive and uncontrolled decrease of children's routine vaccinations 2 . In particular, a worrying reduction in vaccination coverage has been recorded in developing countries 3 . In addition to having been disadvantaged in the vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 4 , these countries have been more affected by public health issues related to the decrease in vaccination coverage for other infectious diseases.This decrease in vaccination coverage for common diseases has, predictably, led to a recent increase in measles cases worldwide 5 . In fact, in the first two months of 2022, measles cases increased about 79% compared to the cases recorded in 2021. This situation is particularly worrying and, in view of its considerable contagiousness, this epidemiological situation will probably worsen further.Moreover, we should highlight that measles is a disease which can cause serious health consequences in children. The possible complications of this pathology are ear infection, diarrhea, pneumonia, brain damage, and death.Especially in the event of permanent damage or death, potential medico-legal issues could be significant. In fact, as already attested in the diagnostic delays of other pathologies, we can say that these public health consequences were foreseeable and avoidable. The inadequate management of vaccination campaigns for diseases other than COVID-19 is a clear breach of national health systems. Health policies have been totally ineffective in this instance. The medium-and long-term effects of this noncompliance could be devastating from both an economic and health point of view. Relatives of children who have died or been permanently injured by measles may take legal action against health facilities. Moreover, they might start class actions against health ministries which have been unable, in various countries around the world, to ensure adequate vaccination coverage for certain diseases, such as measles.

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A pandemia de COVID-19: desafios na avaliação do impacto de problemas complexos e multidimensionais na saúde de populações

Cited by 10 publications

References 8 publications

Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: years 2020 and 2021

Assessing COVID-19 pandemic excess deaths in Brazil: years 2020 and 2021

Global epidemiology and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic: medico-legal and public health implications

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