The exchange rate in Orthodox, Keynesian and New Developmentalism theoretical models: a literature review

Capriata, William; Souza, Leonardo Flauzino de

doi:10.1590/0101-31572021-3126

Brazil. J. Polit. Econ.

2021

DOI: 10.1590/0101-31572021-3126

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The exchange rate in Orthodox, Keynesian and New Developmentalism theoretical models: a literature review

William Capriata

Leonardo Flauzino de Souza

Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to present the differences in the exchange rates in macroeconomic models from the three current theoretical views: Orthodox, Post-Keynesian and New Developmentalism. To achieve this objective, it is proposed to make a bibliographic survey of the literature on open macroeconomics and exchange rate. The main differences among these views concerns to exchange rate determination, causes of exchange rate variations and balance of payments equilibrium determination.

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Mexico: Determinants of the real exchange rate, 2001.01–2022.12

Loría,

Nalin

2023

PLoS ONE

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We estimate the determinants (terms of trade, tradable to non-tradable price differentials, interest rate differentials, forward exchange rate and risk premium) of the Mexican bilateral real exchange rate (q) for the short and long run by using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL, Pesaran and Shin et al. (2001)) for Mexico (2001.01–2022.12). The inclusion of commercial and financial variables and finding empirical evidence of cointegration only for 2009.01–2022.12 are the main contributions. Our results indicate no cointegrating relationship either for the entire sample, or for 2001.01–2008.12. This finding has to do with the increasing international financialization process, after the 2008–2009 Great Financial Crisis. Using a double log model we find that: a) there is a strong short-run autoregressive effect of q of up to 4 lags (0.75), b) that the Balassa-Samuelson Effect is the largest in the model (-0.27 and -1.11 for short and long terms), c) the next most important factor is the terms of trade (-0.126 and -0.51, respectively), d) there are considerable, although lesser, effects of financial variables: forward exchange rate (0.0155 and 0.063, respectively) and risk-premium (0.009 and 0.036, respectively), e) there is a clear long-term trend of real depreciation expressed by the trend of 0.0020, which suggests that the PPP hypothesis applies.

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Mexico: Determinants of the real exchange rate, 2001.01–2022.12

Loría,

Nalin

2023

PLoS ONE

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The government as an inducer of the automotive industry: propositions for Brazilian automotive sector

Filho

Delamaro

Marins

et al. 2022

Prod.

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Paper aims: This paper aims to create propositions that would be a guide the future construction of an industrial policy capable of rebuilding the Brazilian automotive industry (IAB) through the creation of demand by scrappage policy. Originality: This paper is based on more than 470 IAB representatives' answers, C-Level/Senior Executives, converting experience and empiric perspectives in scientific knowledge. Research method: Hypothetical-Deductive research were conducted applying survey as procedure and Delphi Method as technique, using electronic tools to collect data, combining quantitative and qualitative approaches in statistical data analysis. Main findings: Were identified a consensus among IAB representatives and literature evidences about scrappage policy as an engine regarding sustenance of automotive industry and the need for rules that guide national competitiveness key factors. Implications for theory and practice: The paper theoretical and practice implications are provide subsidies to future sectorial policies based on empirical experience of more than 470 IAB representatives.

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The exchange rate in Orthodox, Keynesian and New Developmentalism theoretical models: a literature review

Cited by 2 publications

References 36 publications

Mexico: Determinants of the real exchange rate, 2001.01–2022.12

Mexico: Determinants of the real exchange rate, 2001.01–2022.12

The government as an inducer of the automotive industry: propositions for Brazilian automotive sector

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