Taxa de juros e mecanismos de transmissão da política monetária no Brasil

Abstract

RESUmO: Este trabalho desenvolve a hipótese de que a taxa de juros brasileira é alta como resultado de mecanismos de transmissão monetária parcialmente obstruídos. Surgem falhas de transmissão devido às seguintes características da economia brasileira: (i) segmentação do mercado de crédito; (ii) baixa penetração do crédito livre dentro do processo de determinação de renda; (iii) truncada estrutura a termo da taxas de juros; (iv) a participação das LFT na composição da dívida pública; (v) a participação dos preços administrados no índice de preços ao consumidor. Para alcançar este resultado, o trabalho explora o modelo Bmw e fornece algumas evidências preliminares. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: mecanismo de transmissão monetária; taxa de juro; política monetária.ABSTRACT: Interest rate and monetary transmition mechanisms in Brazil. This paper develops the hypothesis that the Brazilian interest rate is high as a result of partially obstructed monetary transmission mechanisms. Transmission failures arise due to the following characteristics of the Brazilian economy: (i) segmentation of the credit market; (ii) low penetration of free credit within the income determination process; (iii) truncated term structure of interest rates; (iv) participation of LFTs in public debt; (v) participation of administered prices in the consumer price index. To achieve this result, the paper explores the Bmw model and provides some preliminary evidence.

The Limits of Pragmatism: The Rise and Fall of the Brazilian Workers’ Party (2002–2016)

“…Third, pragmatism disarmed the PT against the unremitting opposition of the media, the neoliberal interests, and the upper middle class. It is apparent, then, that more significant achievements in growth, poverty alleviation and distribution, and the recomposition of the country’s economic fabric required more ambitious policy changes supporting a break with neoliberalism, among them the abolition of the neoliberal policy tripod, lower interest rates, the devaluation of the exchange rate, aggressive industrial, financial and capital account policies, the restoration of key production chains, especially in medium and high-technology sectors producing tradables, large investments in infrastructure and the provision of public goods and services, and improvements in the labor market (Barbosa Filho, 2015; Barboza, 2015). In turn, the distribution of income and assets required a comprehensive reform of property and taxation addressing the structural inequalities between rich and poor and between capital and labor.…”

Effects of monetary policy transmission mechanism on car sales in Brazil after the real plan

“…Another monetary policy transmission channel is the exchange rate when the economy takes a floating exchange rate regime and free movement of capital. According to Barboza (2015), a monetary contraction (M ↓) causes the increase in the interest rate (i ↑) causing capital inflows into the economy, due to gains opportunities in domestic assets, which leads to rate appreciation exchange (E ↓). Whereas there was no variation in domestic and foreign prices in the same period, the real exchange rate appreciation also suffers (e ↓), which implies lower competitiveness of domestic products, since in relative terms, the price of domestic product became if higher than abroad.…”

“…Another monetary transmission channel is the credit channel. Which according to Barboza (2015) transmits the monetary policy impulses toward the real economy via changes in the price of credit and can been understood by the other two transmission channels: the bank-lending channel and the channel swings. In the first case, commercial banks play special role in the financial system due to the ability to restrict credit to some borrowers, especially for small businesses.…”

Regime De Metas De Inflação: Análise Comparativa E Evidências Empíricas Para Países Emergentes Selecionados

“…Por fim, um terceiro grupo, em especial para o caso brasileiro, assume que o price puzzle adviria de um possível efeito riqueza financeira às avessas, em que detentores de títulos públicos indexados à Selic não sentiriam efeitos de uma política monetária restritiva, tendo um efeito inverso, o que tornaria esses indivíduos mais "ricos" com a posse desses títulos (MODENESI e MODE-NESI, 2012). Esse efeito mostra claramente uma obstrução do canal de transmissão da política monetária em que um aumento da taxa de juros deveria refletir uma perda de poder aquisitivo dos agentes detentores de títulos públicos, mas em que, na verdade, há um aumento de poder aquisitivo por parte desses agentes (BARBOZA, 2015).…”