Industrialização na América Latina: da “caixa negra” à “caixa postal vazia”

Abstract

RESUMO Neste artigo, o autor oferece uma estratégia de desenvolvimento alternativa à de substituição de importações, orientada pelo estado, liderada pelo estado, mas também à “nova ortodoxia da década de 1980” - a abordagem neoliberal. Essa alternativa é baseada na experiência dos países europeus e particularmente dos tigres asiáticos, que ele chama de GEICs (países em industrialização com crescimento com equidade). Esses países foram capazes de se desenvolver combinando altas taxas de crescimento com uma distribuição razoável de renda. Essa “caixa postal” é nula na América Latina. Se construirmos uma matriz de duas entradas, tendo nas linhas a taxa de crescimento (baixa ou alta) e nos dois pontos o grau de patrimônio líquido (ruim ou razoável), e traçarmos os países latino-americanos nessa matriz, a caixa “alta taxa de crescimento razoável do patrimônio” será anulada. Se a América Latina conseguir preencher essa caixa, as economias aumentarão, o progresso técnico será acelerado e o crescimento será retomado.

A North-South Economic Growth Model: The Role of Income Distribution

“…Finally, it is worth highlighting the capability of the model presented to reproduce the four possible patterns of economic dynamism and social equity analyzed by Fajnzylberg (2000). Thus, and as an example, if locus σ (circumflex) undergoes an upward shift, then there would be economic growth with an increase in income inequality, called dynamic disjointed societies.…”

“…El progreso tecnológico del Sur depende de la distribución del ingreso y de la brecha tecnológica. Con base en este marco, son posibles cuatro tipos de patrones de crecimiento, como los explicados por Fajnzylberg (2000): 1) dinámico y desarticulado, 2) integrado y estancado, 3) desarticulado y estancado y 4) dinámica con equidad social. Se discutieron varias posibilidades de equilibrio (incluidos los equilibrios múltiples).…”

“…In the next section we present the bpcg model that will explore four possible patterns according to Fajnzylberg's (2000) arguments about economic development that helps explaining Latin American economies according to theoretical framework in a North and South modelling.…”

“…Income distribution was also present early on in Prebisch (1949), Furtado (1980Furtado ( [1959) and Medina (1963). However, with the work of Fajnzylberg (2000) and a series of studies sponsored by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (eclac), such as eclac (1990, 1992a, 1992b, 1993, 1997), this concern took its place as a central object of interest.…”

“…In this framework, four possible economic growth patterns for the South economy are presented, following Fajnzylberg (2000): 1) dynamic and disarticulated, i.e., with a high rate of economic growth but high income inequality; 2) integrated and stagnant, in other words, with a low economic growth rate but high income distribution; 3) disarticulated and stagnant, i.e., with a low rate of economic growth and income distribution; and, finally, 4) dynamic with social equity, in other words, with a high rate of economic growth and, also, with wide income distribution. To the best of our knowledge, there is no balance of payment constrained growth model (bpcg) that explores these four possible patterns according to Fajnzylberg's (2000) arguments about economic development in a North-South framework.…”