Tracking the onset date of the community spread of SARS-CoV-2 in western countries

Delatorre, Edson; Mir, Daiana; Gräf, Tiago; Bello, Gonzalo

doi:10.1590/0074-02760200183

Cited by 18 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Our findings are also supported by epidemiological surveillance data (available from: https://covid.saude.gov.br/ ) that reveals the onset symptoms of the first SARS-CoV-2-positive cases with severe acute respiratory illness in Brazil since February 16–22. Also, in agreement with our results, a recent study based on projections from the cumulative number of deaths during the early phase estimated the establishment of local transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil between early and mid-February 2020 ( Delatorre et al, 2020 ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Evolutionary Dynamics and Dissemination Pattern of the SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.33 During the Early Pandemic Phase in Brazil

et al. 2021

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A previous study demonstrates that most of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) Brazilian strains fell in three local clades that were introduced from Europe around late February 2020. Here we investigated in more detail the origin of the major and most widely disseminated SARS-CoV-2 Brazilian lineage B.1.1.33. We recovered 190 whole viral genomes collected from 13 Brazilian states from February 29 to April 31, 2020 and combined them with other B.1.1 genomes collected globally. Our genomic survey confirms that lineage B.1.1.33 is responsible for a variable fraction of the community viral transmissions in Brazilian states, ranging from 2% of all SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Pernambuco to 80% of those from Rio de Janeiro. We detected a moderate prevalence (5–18%) of lineage B.1.1.33 in some South American countries and a very low prevalence (<1%) in North America, Europe, and Oceania. Our study reveals that lineage B.1.1.33 evolved from an ancestral clade, here designated B.1.1.33-like, that carries one of the two B.1.1.33 synapomorphic mutations. The B.1.1.33-like lineage may have been introduced from Europe or arose in Brazil in early February 2020 and a few weeks later gave origin to the lineage B.1.1.33. These SARS-CoV-2 lineages probably circulated during February 2020 and reached all Brazilian regions and multiple countries around the world by mid-March, before the implementation of air travel restrictions in Brazil. Our phylodynamic analysis also indicates that public health interventions were partially effective to control the expansion of lineage B.1.1.33 in Rio de Janeiro because its median effective reproductive number (Re) was drastically reduced by about 66% during March 2020, but failed to bring it to below one. Continuous genomic surveillance of lineage B.1.1.33 might provide valuable information about epidemic dynamics and the effectiveness of public health interventions in some Brazilian states.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Evolutionary Dynamics and Dissemination Pattern of the SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.33 During the Early Pandemic Phase in Brazil

et al. 2021

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“…Li et al established that a great number of infections in China happened long before social restrictions and control policies took place, revealing a large number of undocumented cases (5). Also, Delatorre et al (7) confirmed such findings for multiple countries, including the USA, UK, and Italy. For Brazil, they found that COVID-19 was already circulating in the Brazilian population in early February (between January 31st and February 7th), 2020.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Using the excess number of deaths is preferred over the number of notified infected cases, mainly because of the small number of tested people leading to sub-notification in the number of cases (7). Therefore, the objective of this study was to explore the number of autopsies performed at the São Paulo Autopsy Service (SPAS) to find a possible excess in the number of deaths before the first official death by Sars-CoV-2 in the city of São Paulo.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Death trends based on autopsy data compared to the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in Brazil

Junior

Zilli²,

Silva

et al. 2021

Braz J Med Biol Res

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The novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is responsible for thousands of deaths worldwide, especially in Brazil, currently one of the leading countries in number of infections and deaths. The beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil is uncertain due to the low number of tests done in the country. The excess number of deaths can suggest the beginning of the pandemic in this context. In this article, we used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to investigate possible excesses in the number of deaths processed by the São Paulo Autopsy Service according to different causes of deaths: all-cause, cardiovascular, and pulmonary causes. We calculated the expected number of deaths using data from 2019 to 2020 (n=17,011), and investigated different seasonal patterns using harmonic dynamic regression with Fourier terms with residuals modeled by an ARIMA method. We did not find any abnormalities in the predicted number of deaths and the real values in the first months of 2020. We found an increase in the number of deaths only by March 20, 2020, right after the first COVID-19 confirmed case in the city of São Paulo, which occurred on March 16, 2020.

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“…No Brasil, a primeira notificação ocorreu em 26 de fevereiro, quando um homem regressado da Itália testou positivo. No entanto, foi estimado que a transmissão viral já estivesse ocorrendo desde o dia 4 de fevereiro no país 3 . Segundo dados da semana epidemiológica 17 (19 a 25/04/2020), período da coleta de dados do presente estudo, no país haviam sido notificados 58.509 casos e 4.016 óbitos, sendo respectivamente 1.096 e 34 no Rio Grande do Sul (RS) 4 .…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Percepção do medo de ser contaminado pelo novo coronavírus

Lindemann

Simonetti

Amaral

et al. 2021

J. bras. psiquiatr.

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RESUMO Objetivo: Avaliar a prevalência e os fatores associados à percepção do medo de ser contaminado pelo novo coronavírus. Métodos: Estudo transversal realizado em Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul, com indivíduos de ambos os sexos e 18 ou mais anos de idade. Coleta on-line de dados sociodemográficos, de saúde, de comportamento e de conhecimento acerca do vírus. Análise estatística descritiva e cálculo de prevalência e de razões de prevalência (RP) brutas e ajustadas. Resultados: Amostrados 920 participantes, com 64% de prevalência de medo de contaminação, sendo maior em indivíduos que trabalham (RP = 1,10; IC95 1,02-1,20), com idosos no domicílio (RP = 1,18; IC95 1,17-1,19), percepção negativa da saúde (RP = 1,15; IC95 1,02-1,31), avaliação de elevado risco de contaminação (RP = 1,30; IC95 1,23-1,38), com no mínimo um dos principais sinais/sintomas na semana anterior (RP = 1,12; IC95 1,11-1,13), que realizam maior número de medidas preventivas (RP = 1,27; IC95 1,15-1,40), vacinados contra a gripe (RP = 1,08; IC95 1,07-1,10) e que sabem que pertencem ao grupo de risco (RP = 1,17; IC95 1,14-1,19). Menor probabilidade do desfecho observada em idosos (RP = 0,74; IC95 0,60-0,91), profissionais ou estudantes da saúde (RP = 0,82; IC95 0,81-0,83) e em não fumantes (RP = 0,86; IC95 0,79-0,94). Conclusões: Observou-se elevada proporção de medo entre os participantes, especialmente entre aqueles que se percebem sob maior risco. Considerando o importante papel do medo na saúde mental das pessoas, os achados indicam a importância de intensificar ações educativas e informativas, visando ampliar o esclarecimento da população e reduzir os impactos da pandemia nesse aspecto.

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Tracking the onset date of the community spread of SARS-CoV-2 in western countries

Cited by 18 publications

References 44 publications

Evolutionary Dynamics and Dissemination Pattern of the SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.33 During the Early Pandemic Phase in Brazil

Evolutionary Dynamics and Dissemination Pattern of the SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.33 During the Early Pandemic Phase in Brazil

Death trends based on autopsy data compared to the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in Brazil

Percepção do medo de ser contaminado pelo novo coronavírus

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