Covid-19 growth rate analysis: application of a low-complexity tool for understanding and comparing epidemic curves

Pinto, Airandes de Sousa; Júnior, Edval Gomes dos Santos; Rodrigues, Carlos Alberto; Nunes, Paulo Cesar; Cruz, Lívia Almeida da; Costa, Matheus Gomes Reis; Rocha, Manoel Otávio da Costa

doi:10.1590/0037-8682-0331-2020

Cited by 7 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…This present longitudinal study assessed mental health outcomes in volunteers ( N =103) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. We collected data over three periods of the COVID-19 pandemic curve (Pinto et al, 2020): the first cases of community transmission (i.e., when people within the same country contaminates others) collected from March 20, 2020 to March 25, 2020 acceleration of the curve, collected from April 15, 2020 to April 20, 2020, and continued acceleration of the curve, collected from June 25, 2020 to June 30, 2020. These periods were named times 1, 2 and 3, respectively, to facilitate understanding and analyses.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The copyright holder for this this version posted September 12, 2021. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.07.21263246 doi: medRxiv preprint PREVALENCE OF MENTAL HEALTH COVID-19 6 these previousCOVID-19 studies were gathered between March and May. It should be noted that the COVID-19 pandemic curve reached its peak in Brazil at the end of June (Pinto et al, 2020).…”

Section: Prevalence Of Mental Health Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Importantly, data from these previousCOVID-19 studies were gathered between March and May. It should be noted that the COVID-19 pandemic curve reached its peak in Brazil at the end of June 2020 (Pinto et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prevalence and incidence of stress, depression, and anxiety symptoms among Brazilians in quarantine across the early phases of the COVID-19 crisis

Blacutt

Filgueiras

Stults‐Kolehmainen

2021

Preprint

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Objective: The aim of this study was to measure the prevalence and incidence of stress, depression, and anxiety symptoms in Brazilians during the COVID-19 pandemic. Method: We assessed 103 (54 women, 49 men) participants online in three periods of the epidemic curve: time 1 (T1; first cases of community transmission; March 20 to 25, 2020), time 2 (T2; acceleration; April 15 to 20, 2020) and time 3 (T3; continued acceleration; June 25 to 30, 2020). The criteria adopted for calculating prevalence and incidence was identifying participants with scores two standard deviations above the mean compared to normative data. Stress was measured using the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-10), depression was measured using the Filgueiras Depression Index (FDI), and anxiety was measured using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory - State Subscale (STAI-S). Results: Initially, 89% of individuals were free of severe stress, anxiety, and depression, which dropped to 35% by T3. Prevalence of stress increased from 1.9% (95% CI [0.5, 6.8]) at T1 to 7.8% (95% CI [4.0, 14.6]) at T2, and 28.2% (95% CI [20.4, 37.5]) at T3. Depression prevalence increased from 0% (95% CI [0, 3.6]) at T1 to 23.3% (95% CI [16.2, 32.3]) at T2 and 25.2% (95% CI [17.8, 34.4]) at T3. The prevalence of severe anxiety-state symptoms increased from 10.7% (95% CI [6.1, 18.1]) at T1 to 11.7% (95% CI [6.8, 19.3]) at T2 and 45.6% (95% CI [36.3, 55.2]) at T3. Stress incidence increased by 7.8% (95% CI = [4, 14.6]) from time 1 to time 2, 23.3% (95% CI [16.2, 32.3]) from time 2 to time 3, and 26.2% (95% CI [18.7, 35.5]) from time 1 to time 3. Depression incidence increased by 23.3% (95% CI [16.2, 32.3]) from T1 to T2, 15.5 (95% CI [9.8, 23.8]) T2 to T3, and 25.2% (95% CI [17.8, 34.4]) from T1 to T3. Anxiety incidence increased by 9.7% (95% CI [5.4, 17]) from T1 to T2, 39.8% (95%CI [30.9, 49.5]) from T2 to T3, and 35.9% (95% CI [27.3, 45.5]) from T1 to T3. The severity of stress significantly increased from 16.1±8.7 at T1 to 23.5±8.4 at T2, and 30.3±6.0 at T3. Depression severity significantly increased from 48.5±20.5 at T1 to 64.7±30.2 at T2, and 75.9±26.1 at T3. Anxiety increased from 49.0±13.4 at T1 to 53.5±12.5 at T2 and 62.3±13.4 at T3. Females and individuals without comorbidities that increased COVID-19 lethality had higher anxiety scores than males and individuals with comorbidities. Age was inversely associated with mental health outcomes at baseline. Conclusion: The prevalence and severity of stress, depression, and anxiety significantly increased throughout the course of the pandemic. Anxiety seems to be sensitive to gender and risk status, where females and individuals without pre-existing comorbidities had higher anxiety by the final collection point. Depression and stress increased throughout time but were not different between genders or risk status.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Prevalence Of Mental Health Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prevalence and incidence of stress, depression, and anxiety symptoms among Brazilians in quarantine across the early phases of the COVID-19 crisis

Blacutt

Filgueiras

Stults‐Kolehmainen

2021

Preprint

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“…The epidemic curve was obtained by using the polynomial method in a similar way in previous work (4).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although it facilitates the visualization of categorical variables, which present a large daily variation, it does not allow the calculation of the absolute daily variation rate, that is, daily acceleration. Recently, we demonstrated that the polynomial interpolation method can be used to accurately calculate the daily acceleration of cases and deaths by Covid-19 (4). This method, which applies a methodology that uses the derivative of differential calculus, is used to study curves in several areas of knowledge (5–7).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Covid-19 epidemic curve in Brazil: A sum of multiple epidemics, whose income inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration

Pinto

Rodrigues

Sobrinho

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Introduction: Recently, we demonstrated that the polynomial interpolation method can be used to accurately calculate the daily acceleration of cases and deaths by Covid-19. The acceleration of new cases is important for the characterization and comparison of epidemic curves. The objective of this work is to measure the diversity of epidemic curves and understand the importance of socioeconomic variables in the acceleration, peak cases and deaths by Covid-19 in Brazilian states. Methods: This is an ecological study with time series analysis of new cases and deaths by Covid-19 in Brazil and its 27 federation units. Using the polynomial interpolation method, we calculated the daily cases and deaths with the measurement of the respective acceleration. We calculated the correlation coefficient between the epidemic curve data and socioeconomic data. Results: The combination of daily data and acceleration determined that the states of Brazil are in different stages of the epidemic. Maximum acceleration of peak cases, peak of cases, maximum acceleration of deaths and peak of deaths are associated with the Gini index and population density, but did not correlate with HDI and per capita income. Conclusion: Brazilian states showed heterogeneous data curves. Densitypopulation and socioeconomic inequality are associated with worse control of the epidemic.

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Changes in Stress, Depression, and Anxiety Symptoms in a Brazilian Sample During Quarantine Across the Early Phases of the COVID-19 Crisis

2023

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Objective We aimed to estimate prevalence and incidence of stress, depression, and anxiety symptoms in Brazilians during the COVID-19 pandemic. Method We assessed 103 (54 women, 49 men) participants online in three periods of the pandemic: March 2020 (T1), April 2020 (T2), and June 2020 (T3). Estimates of prevalence and incidence were identified when mental health scores were two standard deviations above the mean compared to normative data. Mental health indicators were measured using the Perceived Stress Scale, the Filgueiras Depression Index, and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory – State Subscale. Results At T1, 89% of individuals were below cut-off scores for stress, anxiety, and depression, which dropped to 35% by T3. Estimated stress prevalence was 1.9% at T1, 7.8% at T2, and 28.2% at T3. Estimated depression prevalence was 0% at T1, 23.3% at T2, and 25.2% at T3. Estimated state anxiety prevalence was 10.7% at T1, 11.7% at T2, and 45.6% at T3. Stress incidence increased by 7.8% from T1 to T2, and 23.3% from T2 to T3. Depression incidence increased by 23.3% from T1 to T2, and 15.5% from T2 to T3. Anxiety incidence increased by 9.7% from T1 to T2, and 39.8% from T2 to T3. Stress severity scores significantly increased from 16.1 ± 8.7 at T1 to 23.5 ± 8.4 at T2, and 30.3 ± 6.0 at T3. Depression severity scores significantly increased from 48.5 ± 20.5 at T1 to 64.7 ± 30.2 at T2, and 75.9 ± 26.1 at T3. Anxiety increased from 49.0 ± 13.4 at T1 to 53.5 ± 12.5 at T2 and 62.3 ± 13.4 at T3. Females had significantly higher anxiety scores than males by T3 (66.7 ± 11.8 vs. 57.4 ± 13.5). Conclusion Prevalence and incidence of stress, depression, and anxiety significantly increased throughout the pandemic. The largest increase in stress and anxiety occurred between T2 and T3, and between T1 and T2 for depression. Severity of stress, depression, and anxiety increased throughout the study.

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Covid-19 growth rate analysis: application of a low-complexity tool for understanding and comparing epidemic curves

Cited by 7 publications

References 3 publications

Prevalence and incidence of stress, depression, and anxiety symptoms among Brazilians in quarantine across the early phases of the COVID-19 crisis

Prevalence and incidence of stress, depression, and anxiety symptoms among Brazilians in quarantine across the early phases of the COVID-19 crisis

Covid-19 epidemic curve in Brazil: A sum of multiple epidemics, whose income inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration

Changes in Stress, Depression, and Anxiety Symptoms in a Brazilian Sample During Quarantine Across the Early Phases of the COVID-19 Crisis

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