Determinants of compliance with personnel expenses and primary result in Brazilian States: an analysis from 2017 to 2022

Abstract

This scientific article evaluates the determinants of fiscal management represented by compliance with the thresholds of the Fiscal Responsibility Law and the primary result target. The study adopted an econometric approach, using binary variables regarding the Brazilian states’ compliance with the total personnel expenditure target and the primary result target. Social and accounting data and the manager’s characteristics were used to analyze the determining factors. In addition, a multiple regression analysis for panel data was conducted, examining the period from 2017 to 2022. In the model for total personnel expenditure, transfers from the federal government to the states and tax revenue favor non-compliance with the thresholds of the Fiscal Responsibility Law. On the other hand, for the primary result target, transfers, accounts payable, payment capacity, and the managers’ education level and age favor compliance with the target.