Pandemic responses in vulnerable communities: a simulation-oriented approach

Rodrigues, Vinícius Picanço; Oliveira, Igor Czermainski de; Chaves, Gisele de Lorena Diniz; Aquino, Ellen Larissa de Carvalho; Viegas, Cláudia Viviane

doi:10.1590/0034-761220200250x

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Social distance, among some 6068 non-pharmaceutical interventions, is the most effective method adopted by leaders around the world, presenting a major impact on decreasing transmission rate

[ 14 ]. As it turns out, the dilemma to adopt social distance in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas such as slums is difficult to assess [ 15 , 16 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

National Holidays and Social Mobility Behaviors: Alternatives for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil

Aragão

Santos

Gonçalves

2021

IJERPH

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In this paper, we investigate the influence of holidays and community mobility on the transmission rate and death count of COVID-19 in Brazil. We identify national holidays and hallmark holidays to assess their effect on disease reports of confirmed cases and deaths. First, we use a one-variate model with the number of infected people as input data to forecast the number of deaths. This simple model is compared with a more robust deep learning multi-variate model that uses mobility and transmission rates (R0, Re) from a SEIRD model as input data. A principal components model of community mobility, generated by the principal component analysis (PCA) method, is added to improve the input features for the multi-variate model. The deep learning model architecture is an LSTM stacked layer combined with a dense layer to regress daily deaths caused by COVID-19. The multi-variate model incremented with engineered input features can enhance the forecast performance by up to 18.99% compared to the standard one-variate data-driven model.

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“…Social distance, among some 6068 non-pharmaceutical interventions, is the most effective method adopted by leaders around the world, presenting a major impact on decreasing transmission rate

[ 14 ]. As it turns out, the dilemma to adopt social distance in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas such as slums is difficult to assess [ 15 , 16 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

National Holidays and Social Mobility Behaviors: Alternatives for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil

Aragão

Santos

Gonçalves

2021

IJERPH

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“…The persistent lack of coordinated national health policies, political conflicts between the president and health authorities, high level of regional fragmentation, and asymmetries in the SUS and private healthcare systems have shaped the dominant sociotechnical imaginary. Due to the lack of adequate measures in vulnerable communities (Rodrigues et al, 2020), collective mitigation measures became difficult. While the imaginaries described in the Brazilian case can also be seen somewhat in the United Kingdom and the United States, we found that the idea of 'living with the virus' and the attribution of responsibility to the individual was most pronounced in Brazil early on in the pandemic.…”

Section: Brazil: 'Take Care Of Yourself' and The Individualisation Of...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Blind Spots of Sociotechnical Imaginaries: COVID-19 Scepticism in Brazil, the United Kingdom and the United States

Silva

2022

Science, Technology and Society

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During the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, experts and policymakers mobilised various slogans to compel the public to help defeat COVID-19. By comparing Brazil, the United Kingdom and the United States, this study shows how dominant sociotechnical imaginaries tied to the slogans were mobilised. We argue that the blind spots of these dominant sociotechnical imaginaries contributed to subversive sociotechnical imaginaries and made room for COVID-19 scepticism. In Brazil, calls to ‘take care of yourself’ contributed to a sceptical stance that individualised responsibility. In the United Kingdom, calls to ‘protect the NHS’ contributed to sceptical accusations of whataboutism and the neglect of other vital social institutions during the lockdown. In the United States, calls to ‘flatten the curve’ contributed to scepticism that challenged public health interventions through discourses of individual choice and freedom. By paying attention to the blind spots of dominant sociotechnical imaginaries, we argue that experts and policymakers should be sensitive to how public health messaging may have feedback effects that detract from the initial aims of interventions.

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“…In addition, it is also used to model and simulate epidemics, such as Ebola, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and Malaria (SDS, 2020 ). More recently, studies applying SD in the context of pandemics gained prominence due to the global context of the coronavirus (Rodrigues et al, 2020 ; Sahin et al, 2020 ; Vega, 2020 ). Thus, SD provided us with the possibility of modelling the dynamics of the coronavirus disease and analysing the different impacts of donations, depending on the type of donations received (gift-in-kind or monetary), distribution channel (gift-in-kind or voucher), donation intensity (quantity and frequency), last-mile delivery mode (organised or disorganised), type of gift-in-kind donation (food or cleaning supplies), and local of purchase relief supplies with received voucher donation (local market x supermarket).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring the impact of donations at the Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP) amid the COVID-19 pandemic

et al. 2022

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The governments' isolation measures to contain the transmission of COVID-19 imposed a dilemma for the people at the bottom of the pyramid. Since these people have very unreliable sources of income, a dilemma arises: they must either work under risky conditions or refrain from work and suffer from income cuts. Emergency donations of food and cleaning supplies in a pandemic context might be overlooked by government and civil society actors. This paper aims to model the effects of donations on mitigating the negative effects of COVID-19 on vulnerable communities. Applying the system dynamics method, we simulated the behaviour of the pandemic in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) communities and the impacts that donations of food and cleaning supplies have in these settings. We administered surveys to the beneficiaries and local organisations responsible for the final distribution of donations to gather information from the field operations. The results show that increasing access to cleaning supplies in communities through donations can significantly reduce coronavirus transmission, particularly in high-density and low-resource areas, such as slums in urban settings. In addition, we also show that food donations can increase the vulnerable population’s ability to afford necessities, alleviating the stress caused by the pandemic on this portion of the population. Therefore, this work helps decision-makers (such as government and non-governmental organisations) understand the impacts of donations on controlling outbreaks, especially under COVID-19 conditions, in a low-resource environment and, thus, aid these hard-to-reach populations in a pandemic setting.

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Pandemic responses in vulnerable communities: a simulation-oriented approach

Cited by 12 publications

References 10 publications

National Holidays and Social Mobility Behaviors: Alternatives for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil

National Holidays and Social Mobility Behaviors: Alternatives for Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil

The Blind Spots of Sociotechnical Imaginaries: COVID-19 Scepticism in Brazil, the United Kingdom and the United States

Measuring the impact of donations at the Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP) amid the COVID-19 pandemic

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