The challenge in detecting risk areas of snakebite when case rates are low: the case of Amazonian coral snakes

Abstract

Identifying risk areas for envenomation by animals is relevant for public health, such as strategic distribution of antivenoms. Coral snakes are highly diverse in the Amazon, inhabit natural and human-modified environments, and the outcome of the cases tends to be serious and potentially lethal due to their neurotoxic venom.By integrating species' geographical records and environmental variables, we used species distribution modeling to predict the distribution of coral snake species in the Brazilian Amazonia. We analyzed the relationship between the predicted distribution of coral snake species, along with envenomation data in the region, to propose actions to reduce the number of cases and to provide tools for a better policy of public health. We conclude that the entire Amazon shows high environmental suitability for coral snakes, and such suitability explains little about the incidence of cases. This is probably due to the low human density in the Amazon and to coral snake traits such as secretive habits and non-agressive behavior. Differently from other venomous snakes, the scenario regarding coral snakebites precludes the detection of prominent geographical areas of concern and demands a broad and equitable availability of health centers throughout Amazonia and along other areas of occurrence of the genus Micrurus.