Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Land Use on Coastal Wetlands: Methodology Applied to Baía da Babitonga (SC)

Abstract

Coastal wetlands are formed by ecosystems with the potential to resist and even expand because of climate change. However, they depend on the preservation of their environmental quality and the ecosystem services they provide, including sediment accumulation, which is essential for maintaining current areas, and the presence of contiguous land areas free from human occupation, allowing for migration to higher areas in response to sea-level rise. To develop a methodology for the joint assessment of the impacts of climate change and land occupation of coastal ecosystems, this study focuses on the mangroves of Baía da Babitonga, located on the northern coast of Santa Catarina. By using projections of sea-level rise and human occupation expansion around the bay based on land cover and land use data, it was possible to identify immediate effects of sea-level rise and human occupation in the short, medium, and long term, as well as the potential expansion area for mangroves. The results indicate the need for the expansion of conservation areas, considering displacement zones towards the mainland, and the control of various stress factors that can interfere with the ecosystem's health and its ability to maintain current areas.