The incubation period of 2019-nCoV infections among travellers from Wuhan, China

Backer, J.A.; Klinkenberg, Don; Wallinga, Jacco

doi:10.1101/2020.01.27.20018986

Cited by 412 publications

(555 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…There are many estimates of the reproduction number for the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak 22 (C) An example of the method used to sample the serial interval for a case that has an incubation period of 5 days. Each case has an incubation period drawn from the distribution in (B), their serial interval is then drawn from a skewed normal distribution with the mean set to the incubation period of the case.…”

Section: Figure 1: Example Of the Simulated Process That Starts With mentioning

confidence: 99%

Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts

Hellewell

Abbott

Gimma

et al. 2020

The Lancet Global Health

2,440

2,403

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Background Isolation of cases and contact tracing is used to control outbreaks of infectious diseases, and has been used for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whether this strategy will achieve control depends on characteristics of both the pathogen and the response. Here we use a mathematical model to assess if isolation and contact tracing are able to control onwards transmission from imported cases of COVID-19. MethodsWe developed a stochastic transmission model, parameterised to the COVID-19 outbreak. We used the model to quantify the potential effectiveness of contact tracing and isolation of cases at controlling a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-like pathogen. We considered scenarios that varied in the number of initial cases, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ), the delay from symptom onset to isolation, the probability that contacts were traced, the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset, and the proportion of subclinical infections. We assumed isolation prevented all further transmission in the model. Outbreaks were deemed controlled if transmission ended within 12 weeks or before 5000 cases in total. We measured the success of controlling outbreaks using isolation and contact tracing, and quantified the weekly maximum number of cases traced to measure feasibility of public health effort.Findings Simulated outbreaks starting with five initial cases, an R 0 of 1·5, and 0% transmission before symptom onset could be controlled even with low contact tracing probability; however, the probability of controlling an outbreak decreased with the number of initial cases, when R 0 was 2·5 or 3·5 and with more transmission before symptom onset. Across different initial numbers of cases, the majority of scenarios with an R 0 of 1·5 were controllable with less than 50% of contacts successfully traced. To control the majority of outbreaks, for R 0 of 2·5 more than 70% of contacts had to be traced, and for an R 0 of 3·5 more than 90% of contacts had to be traced. The delay between symptom onset and isolation had the largest role in determining whether an outbreak was controllable when R 0 was 1·5. For R 0 values of 2·5 or 3·5, if there were 40 initial cases, contact tracing and isolation were only potentially feasible when less than 1% of transmission occurred before symptom onset.Interpretation In most scenarios, highly effective contact tracing and case isolation is enough to control a new outbreak of COVID-19 within 3 months. The probability of control decreases with long delays from symptom onset to isolation, fewer cases ascertained by contact tracing, and increasing transmission before symptoms. This model can be modified to reflect updated transmission characteristics and more specific definitions of outbreak control to assess the potential success of local response efforts.

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Section: Figure 1: Example Of the Simulated Process That Starts With mentioning

confidence: 99%

Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts

Hellewell

Abbott

Gimma

et al. 2020

The Lancet Global Health

2,440

2,403

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Our conclusions are based on several key assumptions. To design our mobility model, we used data from Tencent (https://heat.qq.com), a major social media company that hosts applications, including WeChat (≈1.13 billion active users in 2019) and QQ (≈808 million active users in 2019) (9); consequently, our model might be demographically biased by the Tencent user base. Further, considerable uncertainty regarding the lag between infection and case detection remains.…”

Section: Abstract: Wuhan Coronavirus Epidemiology Importationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We estimated the case detection rate in Wuhan by taking the ratio between the number of reported cases in Wuhan by January 22, 2020 and our estimates for the number of infections occurring ≥10 days prior (i.e., by January 12, 2020). We truncated our estimate 10 days before the quarantine to account for the estimated time between infection and case detection, assuming a 5-6 day incubation period ( 4 , 7 -11 ) followed by 4-5 days between symptom onset and case 9 detection ( 12 , 13 ). Given the uncertainty in these estimates, we also provide estimates assuming shorter and longer delays in the lag between infection and case reporting (Appendix Table 3).…”

Section: Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of 2019 novel coronavirus importations throughout China prior to the Wuhan quarantine

Ling

Cauchemez

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…A subsequent unpublished study from 88 cases estimated a mean incubation time of 6.4 days (95% CI, 5.6-7.7 days). 9 However, the data were taken from an online resource, 10 and only a subset of these data (25 patients) had both clearly defined start and stop dates for exposure, together with a date for onset of symptoms. The patients from Wuhan had extended exposure times by December 14th.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Does SARS‐CoV‐2 has a longer incubation period than SARS and MERS?

Jiang

Rayner

Luo

2020

Journal of Medical Virology

236

190

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The outbreak of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) since December 2019 in Wuhan, the major transportation hub in central China, became an emergency of major international concern. While several etiological studies have begun to reveal the specific biological features of this virus, the epidemic characteristics need to be elucidated. Notably, a long incubation time was reported to be associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, leading to adjustments in screening and control policies. To

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The incubation period of 2019-nCoV infections among travellers from Wuhan, China

Cited by 412 publications

References 13 publications

Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts

Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts

Risk of 2019 novel coronavirus importations throughout China prior to the Wuhan quarantine

Does SARS‐CoV‐2 has a longer incubation period than SARS and MERS?

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