Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change

Stella, Tommaso; Webber, Heidi; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ruane, Alex C.; Fronzek, Stefan; Bregaglio, Simone; Mamidanna, Sravya; Bindi, Marco; Collins, Brian; Faye, Babacar; Ferrise, Roberto; Fodor, Nándor; Gabaldón-Leal, Clara; Jabloun, Mohamed; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Lizaso, Jon; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Manceau, Loïc; Martre, Pierre; Nendel, Claas; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Ruiz‐Ramos, Margarita; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Ewert, Frank

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2196

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…According to our findings, for winter wheat, this risk is much lower than for maize. Stella et al [33] also presented a methodology using relative distribution to assess the changing risk of yield failure in rain-fed wheat and grain maize across Europe in various climate change scenarios, revealing shorter return periods for maize yield failures and less frequent wheat yield failures due to shifts in yield distributions influenced by heat and drought stress. The results indicate that in various climate change scenarios, maize generally exhibited shorter return periods of yield failures.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Future Probability of Winter Wheat and Maize Yield Failure in Hungary Based on Long-Term Temporal Patterns

Huzsvai,

Juhász,

Seddik

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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The level of yield variation of primary crops has a considerable effect on the vulnerability of agriculture. The main factor that makes the agriculture of Hungary so vulnerable is climate change, and technological development cannot compensate for its unfavourable effects. We examined the yield failures of the two major field crops grown in Hungary that occurred during the last 100 years. The goals of our study were to determine how often yield losses at 15% and 30% occur, what their probability is and whether the probability has changed in recent decades. The Wald–Wolfowitz runs test was used to determine the randomness of yield failures. A series of yield failures for maize and winter wheat were found to be random. Based on the data for 1985–2023, failure by 15% and 30% can be expected approximately every 8th and 19th year for winter wheat and 3rd and 5th year for maize. Winter wheat yield failure at 15% shows a decreasing trend in occurrence, while at 30% it increases. On the other hand, the frequency of maize yield failure increased at both levels. The consideration of historical yield data can help to determine the extent of crop loss to be expected in the long term to maintain sustainable winter wheat and maize production in our changing climate.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Future Probability of Winter Wheat and Maize Yield Failure in Hungary Based on Long-Term Temporal Patterns

Huzsvai,

Juhász,

Seddik

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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“…The most common approach to model budburst, flowering, or other stages is the classical growing degree days (GDD, growing degree days) model [3,5,8]; however, authors are constantly seeking alternative approaches to numerically assess frost risk [10,11,26,27]. One example of an approach by Swiss researchers [5] is to combine the growing degree day model with the estimation of frost risk by calculating the safety margin, which is the time interval between the predicted last flowering day and the last day of spring frost.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Frost Risk Assessment in Slovenia in the Period of 1981–2020

et al. 2023

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As spring frost proves to be an increasing risk throughout Slovenia and Europe, a better assessment of frost risk is needed. The statistical approach presented in this article consists of the conditional probability that the last spring frost occurs before budburst or flowering. The analysis was conducted using two separate phenological models and phenological data of various grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.), apple (Malus domestica), and sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) varieties in locations across Slovenia. The increase in risk of spring frost for grapevine ranged from 1 to 1980, from 0.06 to 12 for apple, and from 1 to 180 for sweet cherry. Overall, the varieties most prone to frost proved to be Refošk (Teran) and Merlot grapevine varieties as well as the Germersdorf sweet cherry variety. We have identified the location in the hilly region with moderate climate where the Bobovec apple variety is grown as the least exposed to frost. Although counterintuitive, the GDD generally proved somewhat more efficient than the two-phase phenological model BRIN, although not in all cases. For the purpose of the study, the phenological models were calibrated, and the model parameters can serve as invaluable information for further research of this topic.

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“…For example, considering water shortages and fertiliser pollution [ 7 ], farmers need to follow scientific guidance to implement suitable and sustainable agricultural practices. Currently, however, climate-change impact research mainly focuses on crop growth [ 8 – 10 ]. Few studies consider fruit quality or comprehensively link plant growth and fruit quality.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated model simulates bigger, sweeter tomatoes under changing climate under reduced nitrogen and water input

Zhou

Kang

Génard

et al. 2023

Horticulture Research

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When simulating the response of fruit growth and quality to environmental factors and cultivation practices, the interactions between the mother plant and fruit need to be considered as a whole system. Here, we developed the integrative Tomato plant and fruit Growth and Fruit Sugar metabolism (TGFS) model by coupling equations describing the biophysical processes of leaf gas exchange, water transport, carbon allocation, organ growth and fruit sugar metabolism. The model also accounts for effects of soil nitrogen and atmospheric CO2 concentration on gaseous exchange of water and carbon by the leaf. With different nitrogen and water input values, TGFS performed well at simulating the dry mass of the tomato leaf, stem, root, and fruit, and the concentrations of soluble sugar and starch in fruit. TGFS simulations showed that increasing air temperature and CO2 concentration has positive effects on fruit growth, but not on sugar concentrations. Further model-based analyses of cultivation scenarios suggest that, in the context of climate change, decreasing N by 15%-25% and decreasing irrigation by 10%-20% relative to current levels, would increase tomato fresh weight by 27.8%-36.4% while increasing soluble sugar concentration by up to 10%. TGFS provides a promising tool to optimize N and water inputs for sustainable high-quality tomatoes.

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Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change

Cited by 10 publications

References 58 publications

The Future Probability of Winter Wheat and Maize Yield Failure in Hungary Based on Long-Term Temporal Patterns

The Future Probability of Winter Wheat and Maize Yield Failure in Hungary Based on Long-Term Temporal Patterns

Frost Risk Assessment in Slovenia in the Period of 1981–2020

Integrated model simulates bigger, sweeter tomatoes under changing climate under reduced nitrogen and water input

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