Will environmental changes in temperature affect the course of COVID-19?

Rı́o, Carlos del; Camacho-Ortíz, Adrián

doi:10.1016/j.bjid.2020.04.007

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…We found that the exposure–response relationship between COVID-19 and T ave was positive when T < 5 °C and became negative when 5 °C < T < 15 °C. Our findings that higher temperature may have a negative relationship with the transmission of COVID-19 are consistent with those of others (Del and Camacho-Ortiz 2020 ; Cole et al 2020 ). Das et al ( 2020 ) suggested that countries with low temperatures were more susceptible to infection than those with higher temperatures.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…The persistence of PM 2.5 on COVID-19 lasted longer than that of PM 10 , which might be because PM 2.5 is more easily absorbed by humans (Zhu et al 2020 ). Lag and persistence may vary according to region based on meteorological elements, number of confirmed cases, control measures used, and medical facilities available (Shahzad et al 2020 ; Lin et al 2006 ; Del and Camacho-Ortiz 2020 ). A study in Saudi Arabia (Gardner et al 2019 ) revealed that MERS cases were significantly associated with the lowest temperature and humidity at lag 8–10 days and with wind speed at lag 5–6 days.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Association between environmental factors and COVID-19 in Shanghai, China

Cheng

Shen

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to spread worldwide and has led to recession, rising unemployment, and the collapse of the health-care system. The aim of this study was to explore the exposure–response relationship between daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and environmental factors. We used a time-series generalized additive model (GAM) to investigate the short-term association between COVID-19 and environmental factors by using daily meteorological elements, air pollutant concentration, and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 21, 2020, to February 29, 2020, in Shanghai, China. We observed significant negative associations between daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and mean temperature (T ave ), temperature humidity index (THI), and index of wind effect (K), whereas air quality index (AQI), PM 2.5 , PM 10 NO 2 , and SO 2 were significantly associated with the increase in daily confirmed COVID-19 cases. A 1 °C increase in T ave , one-unit increase in THI, and 10-unit increase in K (lag 0–7 days) were associated with 4.7, 1.8, and 1.6% decrease in daily confirmed cases, respectively. Daily T ave , THI, K, PM 10 , and SO 2 had significant lag and persistence (lag 0–7 days), whereas the lag and persistence of AQI, PM 2.5 , and NO 2 were significant at both lag 0–7 and 0–14 days. A 10-μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 and 1-μg/m 3 increase in SO 2 was associated with 13.9 and 5.7% increase in daily confirmed cases at lag 0–7 days, respectively, whereas a 10-unit increase in AQI and a 10-μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 and NO 2 were associated with 7.9, 7.8, and 10.1% increase in daily confirmed cases at lag 0–14 days, respectively. Our findings have important implications for public health in the city of Shanghai.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between environmental factors and COVID-19 in Shanghai, China

Cheng

Shen

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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“…As of 1 June 2021, CoV has invaded 233 countries, areas, or territories, with the number of confirmed cases reaching 170,448,610 and deaths amounting to more than 3,500,000 worldwide (WHO, 2021a ). Although 1,638,006,899 vaccine doses have been administered (WHO, 2021b ), their effective duration is uncertain due to the high mutation rate of SARS‐CoV‐2 (the etiological agent of COVID‐19; Cohen, 2019 ; Cui et al., 2019 ; Dawood, 2020 ; Del Rio & Camacho‐Ortiz, 2020 ; Masters, 2006 ; Su et al., 2016 ; Wang et al., 2021 ), and patients who recovered after infection are also at risk of reinfection (Ozaras et al., 2020 ; To et al., 2020 ). Thus, COVID‐19 remains a serious problem for all humanity.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Novel Evidence Showing the Possible Effect of Environmental Variables on COVID‐19 Spread

et al. 2022

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Coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) remains a serious issue, and the role played by meteorological indicators in the process of virus spread has been a topic of academic discussion. Previous studies reached different conclusions due to inconsistent methods, disparate meteorological indicators, and specific time periods or regions. This manuscript is based on seven daily meteorological indicators in the NCEP reanalysis data set and COVID‐19 data repository of Johns Hopkins University from 22 January 2020 to 1 June 2021. Results showed that worldwide average temperature and precipitable water (PW) had the strongest correlation ( ρ > 0.9, p < 0.001) with the confirmed COVID‐19 cases per day from 22 January to 31 August 2020. From 22 January to 31 August 2020, positive correlations were observed between the temperature/PW and confirmed COVID‐19 cases/deaths in the northern hemisphere, whereas negative correlations were recorded in the southern hemisphere. From 1 September to 31 December 2020, the opposite results were observed. Correlations were weak throughout the near full year, and weak negative correlations were detected worldwide (| ρ | < 0.4, p ≤ 0.05); the lag time had no obvious effect. As the latitude increased, the temperature and PW of the maximum confirmed COVID‐19 cases/deaths per day generally showed a decreasing trend; the 2020‐year fitting functions of the response latitude pattern were verified by the 2021 data. Meteorological indicators, although not a decisive factor, may influence the virus spread by affecting the virus survival rates and enthusiasm of human activities. The temperature or PW threshold suitable for the spread of COVID‐19 may increase as the latitude decreases.

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“…First, some studies hold that the infections in countries in the Southern Hemisphere comprise more imported cases ( Rio and Camacho-Ortiz, 2020 ). Second, studies in Brazil show that the relative humidity might be another influential factor in the transmission rate, but it is not discussed in this paper.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%