Periodic 18.6-year and cyclic 11-year induced drought and flood in northeastern China and some global implications

Cùrrie, Robert G.; Fairbridge, Rhodes W.

doi:10.1016/0277-3791(85)90016-2

Cited by 58 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Suddenly, at the next epoch 987 drought and tide are approximately out-of-phase, and enhanced wetness or flood has become correlated with maxima in the nodal tide. first reported this phenomenon in tree-ring chronologies from the Patagonian Andes of Argentina; later it was also found in flood area indices for India (Currie, 1984a), in tree-ring data in western Canada (Currie, 1984c), in a drought/flood index for northern China (Currie and Fairbridge, 1985), in precipitation data for the northeastern United States (Currie, 1987c), and in air temperature and pressure records worldwide (Currie, 1987a). Tyson (1980) also reported the phenomenon in rainfall data in South Africa.…”

Section: Time Domain Analysis O F Historical Recordsmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Signal processing follows the procedures discussed in detail by Currie (198 Id) and Currie and Fairbridge (1985), and is based on maximum entropy spectrum analysis (MESA) and prediction error filtering (Childers, 1978;Kay 1987;Marple, 1987). Jaynes (1982) has provided a derivation of MESA in terms of Gibbs' grand canonical ensemble of statistical mechanics where the prediction error filter emerges as a set of Lagrange multipliers.…”

Section: Signal Processing and Data Basesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4Drought D for 50 out of 60 tree-ring chronologies in the western United States and northern Mexico (Currie, 1984). 'Drought D or flood F from a drought/flood index constructed for Beijing in northern China (Currie and Fairbridge, 1985). 'Epochs of solar cycle drought D maxima in the western United States/northern Mexico based on 42 out of 60 tm-ring chronologies for the "Arizona network" (see Currie, 1984~).…”

Section: Solar Cycle Termmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Evidence now exists for periodic lunar nodal 18.6-year (as well as 10-11 year cyclic) forcing of drought and flood in western North America during the past millennium (Currie, 1981d(Currie, , 1984b, in northeastern U.S. precipitation data since 1840 (Currie, 1987c), in South America in middle latitudes since AD 1600 , in northeastern China since AD 1500 (Hameed et al, 1983;Currie and Fairbridge, 1985), and since AD 1891 in India Campbell, 1983;Currie, 1984a). Currie (1987a) complemented these results by analyzing the long world weather records, some 525 time series, and detected the 18.6-and nominal 11-year terms in air temperature and air pressure worldwide.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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On bistable phasing of 18‐6‐year induced drought and flood in the Nile records since AD 650

Cùrrie

1987

J. Climatol.

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A maximum entropy analysis of winter and summer flood records of the Nile from AD 622 to 1490 shows evidence for periodic lunar nodal 18.6-year (as well as weaker 10-1 1 year cyclic) induced drought/flood in regions of Africa drained by this river. This supports the results of Hameed (1984) who analyzed the same records using the Fourier transform method, and of Hameed and Currie (1985) who studied the summer flood records of the modern period (AD 1690-1962) using the maximum entropy method. The nodal term exhibits bistable phasing with respect to dates or epochs of maximum in the nodal tide, a phenomenon previously found in drought/flood proxy data in

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Section: Time Domain Analysis O F Historical Recordsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Signal Processing and Data Basesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Solar Cycle Termmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

See 2 more Smart Citations

On bistable phasing of 18‐6‐year induced drought and flood in the Nile records since AD 650

Cùrrie

1987

J. Climatol.

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“…This is the same as the results of the power spectrum analysis shown in Figure 2, showing two significant intervals of 2.7 years and 6.0-7.5 years. An approximately 15-year time (Figure 1(b)), which might be related to the astronomically induced 18.6-year and 11-year periods in the floods and droughts of the northeast China region noted by Currie and Fairbridge (1985). However, it may be that the drought record for Korea is not long enough to catch the decadal time scale.…”

Section: Temporal Characteristics Of Droughts In Koreamentioning

confidence: 98%

Spatial and temporal comparisons of droughts over Korea with East Asia

Min

Kwon

Park

et al. 2003

Intl Journal of Climatology

143

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To investigate the spatial and temporal relationships of drought occurrence and intensity between Korea and East Asia, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), calculated from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) monthly precipitation data, was used from 1951 to 1996. It is found that the frequency of occurrence of droughts in Korea has significant time intervals of 2-3 and 5-8 years and has been increasing since the 1980s. Correlation and composite analyses showed that the occurrence of droughts over central eastern China, Manchuria, and the north coast of Japan was highly correlated with those in Korea. However, the time scales of occurrence of droughts over the three regions were different. Droughts in eastern China represented in-phase variations with those in Korea with a time interval of 5-8 years, whereas those in Manchuria occurred with a time interval of 15 years, and those in Japan had no coincident variations.To assess the feasibility of usage of proxy climate data in eastern China for the research of droughts in Korea during the pre-instrumental period, dry-wet indices in six regions of eastern China were correlated to the SPI values in Korea for the period of 1951-92 considering several time scales. Dry-wet indices of region V showed a larger correlation and the most similar trend to the droughts in Korea with a time scale of 5-11 years. This suggested an effective utilization of historical records and other proxy data in eastern China to understand extreme climatic events in Korea for the past 500 years.

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On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation

Love

2013

Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] We examine William Herschel's hypothesis that solarcycle variation of the Sun's irradiance has a modulating effect on the Earth's climate and that this is, specifically, manifested as an anticorrelation between sunspot number and the market price of wheat. Since Herschel first proposed his hypothesis in 1801, it has been regarded with both interest and skepticism. Recently, reports have been published that either support Herschel's hypothesis or rely on its validity. As a test of Herschel's hypothesis, we seek to reject a null hypothesis of a statistically random correlation between historical sunspot numbers, wheat prices in London and the United States, and wheat farm yields in the United States. We employ binary-correlation, Pearsoncorrelation, and frequency-domain methods. We test our methods using a historical geomagnetic activity index, well known to be causally correlated with sunspot number. As expected, the measured correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity would be an unlikely realization of random data; the correlation is "statistically significant." On the other hand, measured correlations between sunspot number and wheat price and wheat yield data would be very likely realizations of random data; these correlations are "insignificant." Therefore, Herschel's hypothesis must be regarded with skepticism. We compare and contrast our results with those of other researchers. We discuss procedures for evaluating hypotheses that are formulated from historical data.

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Periodic 18.6-year and cyclic 11-year induced drought and flood in northeastern China and some global implications

Cited by 58 publications

References 62 publications

On bistable phasing of 18‐6‐year induced drought and flood in the Nile records since AD 650

On bistable phasing of 18‐6‐year induced drought and flood in the Nile records since AD 650

Spatial and temporal comparisons of droughts over Korea with East Asia

On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation

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