Selection and ranking of ground motion models for seismic hazard analysis in the Pyrenees

Abstract

The issue addressed in this paper is the objective selection of appropriate ground motion models for seismic hazard assessment in the Pyrenees. The method of Scherbaum et al. (2004a) is applied in order to rank eight published ground motion models relevant to intraplate or to low deformation rate contexts. This method is based on a transparent and data-driven process which quantifies the model fit and also measures how well the underlying model assumptions are met. The method is applied to 15 accelerometric records obtained in the Pyrenees for events of local magnitude between 4.8 and 5.1, corresponding to moment magnitudes ranging from 3.7 to 3.9. Only stations at rock sites are considered. A total of 720 spectral amplitudes are used to rank the selected ground motion models. Some control parameters of these models, such as magnitude and distance definitions, may vary from one model to the other. It is thus important to correct the selected models for their difference with respect to the magnitude and distance definitions used for the Pyrenean data. Our analysis shows that, with these corrections, some of the ground motion models successfully fit the data. These are the Lussou et al. (2001) and the Berge-Thierry et al. (2003) models. According to the selected ground motion models, a possible scenario of a magnitude 6 event is proposed; it predicts response spectra accelerations of 0.08–0.1 g at 1 Hz at a hypocentral distance of 10 km

Ground motions observed during the 15 August 2007 Pisco, Peru, earthquake

“…The Scherbaum technique has been successfully applied in several recent studies to examine the suitability of existing equations for the prediction of ground motions in different regions (e.g. Douglas et al 2006;Bindi et al 2006;Drouet et al 2007;Hintersberger et al 2007;Stafford et al 2008).…”

An evaluation of the applicability of the NGA models to ground-motion prediction in the Euro-Mediterranean region

“…The analysis is primarily based upon an application of the likelihood approach of Scherbaum et al (2004) whereby measures of the goodness-of-fit of a model to a given dataset may be used to judge the suitability of the model for application in the region from which the dataset was compiled. Similar approaches have previously been implemented for relatively small numbers of records from parts of Europe (Bindi et al 2006;Hintersberger et al 2006;Drouet et al, 2007).…”

Investigating Possible Regional Dependence in Strong Ground Motions

“…Hintersberger et al, 2007) have found that none of the models tested provide good predictions for some earthquakes outside their geographical zone of origin whereas others (e.g. Drouet et al, 2007) have found some GMPEs closely predict observations from completely different geographical zones. The good or poor match between observations and predictions can often be related to the magnitude and distance ranges of validity of the considered GMPEs and different average site effects between regions.…”