In this large, prospective, multinational cohort, more than one half of all cases of non-HACEK gram-negative bacillus endocarditis were associated with health care contact. Non-HACEK gram-negative bacillus endocarditis is not primarily a disease of injection drug users.

BackgroundHost factors and complications have been associated with higher mortality in infective endocarditis (IE). We sought to develop and validate a model of clinical characteristics to predict 6‐month mortality in IE.Methods and ResultsUsing a large multinational prospective registry of definite IE (International Collaboration on Endocarditis [ICE]–Prospective Cohort Study [PCS], 2000–2006, n=4049), a model to predict 6‐month survival was developed by Cox proportional hazards modeling with inverse probability weighting for surgery treatment and was internally validated by the bootstrapping method. This model was externally validated in an independent prospective registry (ICE‐PLUS, 2008–2012, n=1197). The 6‐month mortality was 971 of 4049 (24.0%) in the ICE‐PCS cohort and 342 of 1197 (28.6%) in the ICE‐PLUS cohort. Surgery during the index hospitalization was performed in 48.1% and 54.0% of the cohorts, respectively. In the derivation model, variables related to host factors (age, dialysis), IE characteristics (prosthetic or nosocomial IE, causative organism, left‐sided valve vegetation), and IE complications (severe heart failure, stroke, paravalvular complication, and persistent bacteremia) were independently associated with 6‐month mortality, and surgery was associated with a lower risk of mortality (Harrell's C statistic 0.715). In the validation model, these variables had similar hazard ratios (Harrell's C statistic 0.682), with a similar, independent benefit of surgery (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% CI 0.62–0.89). A simplified risk model was developed by weight adjustment of these variables.ConclusionsSix‐month mortality after IE is ≈25% and is predicted by host factors, IE characteristics, and IE complications. Surgery during the index hospitalization is associated with lower mortality but is performed less frequently in the highest risk patients. A simplified risk model may be used to identify specific risk subgroups in IE.

Background The impact of early surgery on mortality in patients with native valve endocarditis (NVE) is unresolved. This study seeks to evaluate valve surgery compared to medical therapy for NVE, and to identify characteristics of patients who are most likely to benefit from early surgery. Methods and Results Using a prospective, multinational cohort of patients with definite NVE, the effect of early surgery on in-hospital mortality was assessed using propensity-based matching adjusting for survivor bias, and instrumental variable analysis. Patients were stratified by propensity quintile, paravalvular complications, valve perforation, systemic embolization, stroke, Staphylococcus aureus infection and congestive heart failure. Of the 1552 patients with NVE, 720 (46%) underwent early surgery and 832 (54%) were treated with medical therapy. Compared to medical therapy, early surgery was associated with a significant reduction in mortality in the overall cohort (12.1% [87/720] vs. 20.7% [172/832]) and after propensity-based matching and adjustment for survivor bias (absolute risk reduction (ARR) = -5.9 %; p<0.001). Using a combined instrument, the instrumental variable adjusted ARR in mortality associated with early surgery was -11.2% (p<0.001). In sub-group analysis, surgery was found to confer a survival benefit compared to medical therapy among patients with a higher propensity for surgery (ARR= -10.9% for quintiles 4 and 5; p=0.002); those with paravalvular complications (ARR= -17.3 %; p<0.001), systemic embolization (ARR= -12.9%; p=0.002), S aureus NVE (ARR= -20.1%; p<0.001) and stroke (ARR= -13%; p=0.02) but not with valve perforation or congestive heart failure. Conclusions Early surgery for NVE is associated with an in-hospital mortality benefit compared to medical therapy alone.