No abstract

This paper proposes a new efficient two-step method for parametrizing control-oriented zero-dimensional physical polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) models with measured stack data. Parametrizations of these models are computationally intensive due to the numerous unknown parameters and the typically nonlinear, stiff model properties. This work reduces an existing model to decrease its stiffness for accelerated numerical simulations. Subdividing the parametrization into two consecutive subproblems (thermodynamic and electrochemical ones) reduces the solution space significantly. A parameter sensitivity analysis further reduces each sub-solution space by excluding non-significant parameters. The method results in an efficient parametrization process. The two-step approach minimizes each sub-solution space’s dimension by two-thirds, respectively three-fourths, compared to the global one. An achieved R2 value between simulation and measurement of 91% on average provides the required accuracy for control-oriented models.

The COVID-19 pandemic confronts governments and their health systems with great challenges for disease management. In many countries, hospitalization and in particular ICU occupancy is the primary measure for policy makers to decide on possible non-pharmaceutical interventions. In this paper a combined methodology for the prediction of COVID-19 case numbers, case-specific hospitalization and ICU admission rates as well as hospital and ICU occupancies is proposed. To this end, we employ differential flatness to provide estimates of the states of an epidemiological compartmental model and estimates of the unknown exogenous inputs driving its nonlinear dynamics. A main advantage of this method is that it requires the reported infection cases as the only data source. As vaccination rates and case-specific ICU rates are both strongly age-dependent, specifically an age-structured compartmental model is proposed to estimate and predict the spread of the epidemic across different age groups. By utilizing these predictions, case-specific hospitalization and case-specific ICU rates are subsequently estimated using deconvolution techniques. In an analysis of various countries we demonstrate how the methodology is able to produce real-time state estimates and hospital/ICU occupancy predictions for several weeks thus providing a sound basis for policy makers.

The currently ongoing COVID-19 pandemic confronts governments and their health systems with great challenges for disease management. Epidemiological models play a crucial role, thereby assisting policymakers to predict the future course of infections and hospitalizations. One difficulty with current models is the existence of exogenous and unmeasurable variables and their significant effect on the infection dynamics. In this paper, we show how a method from nonlinear control theory can complement common compartmental epidemiological models. As a result, one can estimate and predict these exogenous variables requiring the reported infection cases as the only data source. The method allows to investigate how the estimates of exogenous variables are influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions and how imminent epidemic waves could already be predicted at an early stage. In this way, the concept can serve as an “epidemometer” and guide the optimal timing of interventions. Analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in various countries demonstrate the feasibility and potential of the proposed approach. The generic character of the method allows for straightforward extension to different epidemiological models.

Polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) are prone to membrane dehydration and liquid water flooding, negatively impacting their performance and lifetime. Therefore, PEMFCs require appropriate water management, which makes accurate water modeling indispensable. Unfortunately, available control-oriented models only replicate individual water-related aspects or use oversimplistic approximations. This paper resolves this challenge by proposing, for the first time, a control-oriented PEMFC stack model focusing on physically motivated water modeling, which covers phase change, liquid water removal, membrane water uptake, and water flooding effects on the electrochemical reaction. Parametrizing the resulting model with measurement data yielded the fitted model. The parameterized model delivers valuable insight into the water mechanisms, which were thoroughly analyzed. In summary, the proposed model enables the derivation of advanced control strategies for efficient water management and mitigation of the degradation phenomena of PEMFCs. Additionally, the model provides the required accuracy for control applications while maintaining the necessary computational efficiency.