The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefi ts of climate change mitigation; economics and fi nance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the fi ve thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent diff erent aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these fi ve working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refi nement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profi les. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.
Estimating exposures to PM2.5 within urban areas requires surface PM2.5 concentrations at high temporal and spatial resolutions. We developed a mixed effects model to derive daily estimations of surface PM2.5 levels in Beijing, using the 3 km resolution satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) calibrated daily by the newly available high-density surface measurements. The mixed effects model accounts for daily variations of AOD-PM2.5 relationships and shows good performance in model predictions (R(2) of 0.81-0.83) and cross-validations (R(2) of 0.75-0.79). Satellite derived population-weighted mean PM2.5 for Beijing was 51.2 μg/m(3) over the study period (Mar 2013 to Apr 2014), 46% higher than China's annual-mean PM2.5 standard of 35 μg/m(3). We estimated that more than 19.2 million people (98% of Beijing's population) are exposed to harmful level of long-term PM2.5 pollution. During 25% of the days with model data, the population-weighted mean PM2.5 exceeded China's daily PM2.5 standard of 75 μg/m(3). Predicted high-resolution daily PM2.5 maps are useful to identify pollution "hot spots" and estimate short- and long-term exposure. We further demonstrated that a good calibration of the satellite data requires a relatively large number of ground-level PM2.5 monitoring sites and more are still needed in Beijing.
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