ObjectivesTo develop a nomogram to predict the likelihood of vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC) among women after a previous caesarean section (CS).DesignA retrospective cohort study.SettingTwo secondary hospitals in Guangdong Province, China.ParticipantsInclusion criteria were as follows: pregnant women with singleton fetus, age ≥18 years, had a history of previous CS and scheduled for trial of labour after caesarean delivery (TOLAC). Patients with any of the following were excluded from the study: preterm labour (gestational age <37 weeks), two or more CSs, contradictions for vaginal birth, history of other uterine incision such as myomectomy, and incomplete medical records.Primary outcome measureThe primary outcome was VBAC, which was retrospectively abstracted from computerised medical records by clinical staff.ResultsOf the women who planned for TOLAC, 84.0% (1686/2006) had VBAC. Gestational age, history of vaginal delivery, estimated birth weight, body mass index, spontaneous onset of labour, cervix Bishop score and rupture of membranes were independently associated with VBAC. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the prediction model was 0.77 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.81) in the training cohort. The validation set showed good discrimination with an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.79).ConclusionsTOLAC may be a potential strategy for decreasing the CS rate in China. The validated nomogram to predict success of VBAC could be a potential tool for VBAC counselling.

The mean endometrial thickness, clinical pregnancy rate, ongoing pregnancy rate, live birth rate and implantation rate were similar in artificial and stimulated cycle for endometrial preparation prior to FET in PCOS. It was fine to add vaginal 17-β oestradiol to stimulated cycle when necessary. However, stimulated cycles had a significantly higher cancelled cycle rate. We should follow the principles of individualization, securitization and optimization in endometrial preparation of the FET in patients with PCOS.

Progesterone elevation (PE) on the day of hCG trigger is associated with decreased pregnancy outcome in fresh cycles. Evidence for this comes from overall patient estimates that mostly ignore different ovarian responses. To compare the impacts of PE on the day of hCG trigger on live birth rates (LBs) in low, intermediate and high ovarian responders and to explore the cut-off value for PE in different populations according to the ovarian response, we retrospectively analyzed a total of 2,351 patients receiving fresh assisted reproduction technology (ART) transfer cycles with GnRH agonist using a long or short protocol. Trend and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the cutoff values of PE and to evaluate the effects of PE on LB rates (LBRs) in different ovarian responders. The study found that PE has a detrimental effect on LBRs in low to intermediate ovarian responders rather than in high responders. The cut-off values for PE were 1.0 ng/mL and 2.0 ng/mL for low and intermediate ovarian responders, respectively. The different associations between PE and LBRs according to ovarian response could more accurately predict the prognosis of the IVF cycle and could be used to optimize the treatment of patients undergoing In Vitro Fertilization (IVF)/ Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection (ICSI).

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