Background The C 2 HEST score (coronary artery disease or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [1 point each]; hypertension [1 point]; elderly [age ≥75 years, 2 points]; systolic heart failure [2 points]; thyroid disease [hyperthyroidism, 1 point]) was initially proposed for predicting incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population. Its performance in poststroke patients remains to be established, especially because patients at high risk for incident AF should be targeted for more comprehensive screening. This study aimed to evaluate this newly established incident AF prediction risk score in a post–ischemic stroke population. Methods and Results Validation was based on a hospital‐based nationwide cohort with 240 459 French post–ischemic stroke patients. Kaplan–Meier curves for incident rate of AF depict differences between varying risk categories. Discrimination of the C 2 HEST score was evaluated using the C index, the net reclassification index, integrated discriminatory improvement, and decision curve analysis. During 7.9±11.5 months of follow‐up, 14 095 patients developed incident AF. The incidence of AF increased from 23.5 per 1000 patient‐years in patients with a C 2 HEST score of 0 to 196.8 per 1000 patient‐years in patients with a C 2 HEST score ≥6. Kaplan–Meier curves showed a clear difference among different risk strata (log‐rank P <0.0001). The C 2 HEST score had good discrimination with a C index of 0.734 (95% CI, 0.732–0.736), which was better than the Framingham risk score and the CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 [doubled], diabetes mellitus, stroke [doubled], vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years, and female sex) ( P <0.0001, respectively). The C 2 HEST score was also superior to the Framingham risk score and the CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc score as shown by the net reclassification index, integrated discriminatory improvement ( P <0.0001, respectively) and decision curve analysis. Conclusions The C 2 HEST score performed well in discriminating the individual risk of developing incident AF in a white European population hospitalized with previous ischemic stroke. This simple score may potentially be used as a risk stratification tool for decision making in relation to a screening strategy for AF in post–ischemic stroke patients.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasing, conferring a major health-care issue in Asia. No risk score for predicting incident AF has been specifically developed in Asian subjects. Our aim was to investigate risk factors for incident AF in Asian subjects and to combine them into a simple clinical risk score. METHODS: Risk factors for incident AF were analyzed in 471,446 subjects from the Chinese Yunnan Insurance Database (internal derivation cohort) and then combined into a simple clinical risk score. External application of the new score was performed in 451,199 subjects from the Korean National Health Insurance Service (external cohort). RESULTS: In the internal cohort, structural heart disease (SHD), heart failure (HF), age $ 75 years, coronary artery disease (CAD), hyperthyroidism, COPD, and hypertension were associated with incident AF. Given the low prevalence and the strong association of SHD with incident AF (hazard ratio, 26.07; 95% CI, 18.22-37.30; P < .001), these patients should be independently considered as high risk for AF and were excluded from the analysis. The remaining predictors were combined into the new simple C 2 HEST score: C 2 : CAD/COPD (1 point each); H: hypertension (1 point); E: elderly (age $ 75 years, 2 points); S: systolic HF (2 points); and T: thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism, 1 point). The C 2 HEST score showed good discrimination with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77) and had good calibration (P ¼ .774). The score was internally validated by bootstrap sampling procedure, giving an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77). External application gave an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.65-0.66). The C 2 HEST score was superior to CHADS 2 and CHA 2 DS 2-VASc scores in both cohorts in predicting incident AF. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and validated the C 2 HEST score as a simple clinical tool to assess the individual risk of developing AF in the Asian population without SHD.

The risks of major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) are higher in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) compared to non-Asians. We aimed to investigate risk factors for bleeding, and validate the predictive value of available bleeding risk scores (mOBRI, HEMORR2HAGES, Shireman, HAS-BLED, ATRIA and ORBIT) in a large cohort of Chinese inpatients with AF. Using hospital electronic medical databases, we identified 4824 AF patients (mean age 67 years; 34.9% female) from January 1, 1995 to May 30, 2015, with median (interquartile) in-hospital days of 10 (7–16) days. On multivariate analysis, prior bleeds, vascular disease, anemia, prior stroke, and liver dysfunction were independent risk factors of major bleeding (all p < 0.05). C-statistics (95%CI) of the HAS-BLED score were 0.72 (0.65–0.79) for major bleeding events and 0.83 (0.75–0.91) for ICH (all p < 0.001). Compared to other risk scores, the HAS-BLED score was significantly better in predicting major bleeding events (Delong test, all P < 0.05, apart from mOBRI, HEMORR2HAGES) and ICH (all p < 0.05), and additionally, resulted in a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 17.1–65.5% in predicting major bleeding events and 29.5–67.3% in predicting ICH (all p < 0.05). We conclude that the HAS-BLED score had the best predictive and discriminatory ability for major bleeding and ICH in an Asian/Chinese AF population.

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Myocardial dysfunction and coronary macro/microvascular alterations are the hallmarks of diabetic cardiomyopathy and are ascribed to increased oxidative stress and altered nitric oxide synthase (NOS) activity. We hypothesize that pre-treatment by cobalt-protoporphyrin IX (CoPP) ameliorates both myocardial function and coronary circulation in streptozotocin (STZ)-induced diabetic rats. Isolated hearts from diabetic rats in Langendorff configuration displayed lower left ventricular function and higher coronary resistance (CR) compared to hearts from control animals. CoPP treatment of diabetic animals (0.3 mg/100 g body weight i.p., once a week for 3 weeks) significantly increased all the contractile/relaxation indexes (p < 0.01), while decreasing CR (p < 0.01). CoPP enhanced HO-1 protein levels and reduced oxidative stress in diabetic animals, as indicated by the significant (p < 0.05) decrease in heart % GSSG, O2− and malondialdehyde (MDA) levels. CoPP increased adiponectin levels and phosphorylation of AKT and AMPK and reversed the eNOS/iNOS expression imbalance observed in the untreated diabetic heart. Furthermore, after CoPP treatment, a rise in malonyl-CoA as well as a decrease in acetyl-CoA was observed in diabetic hearts. In this experimental model of diabetic cardiomyopathy, CoPP treatment improved both cardiac function and coronary flow by blunting oxidative stress, restoring eNOS/iNOS expression balance and increasing HO-1 levels, thereby favoring improvement in both endothelial function and insulin sensitivity.