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Concurrent mental health factors may influence the reporting of traumatic childhood experiences. Studies that use retrospective reporting to estimate associations between childhood adversity and adult outcomes associated with mental health may be biased.

Research CMAJBackground: Many people with depression experience repeated episodes. Previous research into the predictors of chronic depression has focused primarily on the clinical features of the disease; however, little is known about the broader spectrum of sociodemographic and health factors inherent in its development. Our aim was to identify factors associated with a long-term negative prognosis of depression. Methods:We included 585 people aged 16 years and older who participated in the 2000/01 cycle of the National Population Health Survey and who reported experiencing a major depressive episode in 2000/01. The primary outcome was the course of depression until 2006/07. We grouped individuals into trajectories of depression using growth trajectory models. We included demographic, mental and physical health factors as predictors in the multivariable regression model to compare people with different trajectories.Results: Participants fell into two main depression trajectories: those whose depression resolved and did not recur (44.7%) and those who experienced repeated episodes (55.3%). In the multivariable model, daily smoking (OR 2.68, 95% CI 1.54-4.67), low mastery (i.e., feeling that life circumstances are beyond one's control) (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03-1.18) and history of depression (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.95-6.27) were significant predictors (p < 0.05) of repeated episodes of depression.Interpretation: People with major depression who were current smokers or had low levels of mastery were at an increased risk of repeated episodes of depression. Future studies are needed to confirm the predictive value of these variables and to evaluate their accuracy for diagnosis and as a guide to treatment. Abstract

ObjectivesTo assess how much the association between migraine and depression may be explained by various measures of stress.DesignNational Population Health Survey is a prospective cohort study representative of the Canadian population. Eight years of follow-up time were used in the present analyses.SettingCanadian adult population ages 18–64.Participants9288 participants.OutcomeIncident migraine and major depression.ResultsAdjusting for sex and age, depression was predictive of incident migraine (HR: 1.62; 95% CI 1.03 to 2.53) and migraine was predictive of incident depression (HR: 1.55; 95% CI 1.15 to 2.08). However, adjusting for each assessed stressor (childhood trauma, recent marital problems, recent unemployment, recent household financial problems, work stress, chronic stress and change in social support) decreased this association, with chronic stress being a particularly strong predictor of outcomes. When adjusting for all stressors simultaneously, both associations were largely attenuated (depression–migraine HR: 1.30; 95% CI 0.80 to 2.10; migraine–depression HR: 1.19; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.66).ConclusionsMuch of the apparent association between migraine and depression may be explained by stress.

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