ObjectivesPurposefully designed and validated screening, triage, and severity scoring tools are needed to reduce mortality of COVID-19 in low-resource settings (LRS). This review aimed to identify currently proposed and/or implemented methods of screening, triaging, and severity scoring of patients with suspected COVID-19 on initial presentation to the healthcare system and to evaluate the utility of these tools in LRS.DesignA scoping review was conducted to identify studies describing acute screening, triage, and severity scoring of patients with suspected COVID-19 published between 12 December 2019 and 1 April 2021. Extracted information included clinical features, use of laboratory and imaging studies, and relevant tool validation data.ParticipantThe initial search strategy yielded 15 232 articles; 124 met inclusion criteria.ResultsMost studies were from China (n=41, 33.1%) or the United States (n=23, 18.5%). In total, 57 screening, 23 triage, and 54 severity scoring tools were described. A total of 51 tools−31 screening, 5 triage, and 15 severity scoring—were identified as feasible for use in LRS. A total of 37 studies provided validation data: 4 prospective and 33 retrospective, with none from low-income and lower middle-income countries.ConclusionsThis study identified a number of screening, triage, and severity scoring tools implemented and proposed for patients with suspected COVID-19. No tools were specifically designed and validated in LRS. Tools specific to resource limited contexts is crucial to reducing mortality in the current pandemic.
Background: In many low- and middle-income countries, where vaccinations will be delayed and healthcare systems are underdeveloped, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue for the foreseeable future. Mortality scales can aid frontline providers in low-resource settings (LRS) in identifying those at greatest risk of death so that limited resources can be directed towards those in greatest need and unnecessary loss of life is prevented. While many prognostication tools have been developed for, or applied to, COVID-19 patients, no tools to date have been purpose-designed for, and validated in, LRS. Objectives: This study aimed to develop a pragmatic tool to assist LRS frontline providers in evaluating in-hospital mortality risk using only easy-to-obtain demographic and clinical inputs. Methods: Machine learning was used on data from a retrospective cohort of Sudanese COVID-19 patients at two government referral hospitals to derive contextually appropriate mortality indices for COVID-19, which were then assessed by C-indices. Findings: Data from 467 patients were used to derive two versions of the AFEM COVID-19 Mortality Scale (AFEM-CMS), which evaluates in-hospital mortality risk using demographic and clinical inputs that are readily obtainable in hospital receiving areas. Both versions of the tool include age, sex, number of comorbidities, Glasgow Coma Scale, respiratory rate, and systolic blood pressure; in settings with pulse oximetry, oxygen saturation is included and in settings without access, heart rate is included. The AFEM-CMS showed good discrimination: the model including pulse oximetry had a C-statistic of 0.775 (95% CI: 0.737–0.813) and the model excluding it had a C-statistic of 0.719 (95% CI: 0.678–0.760). Conclusions: In the face of an enduring pandemic in many LRS, the AFEM-CMS serves as a practical solution to aid frontline providers in effectively allocating healthcare resources. The tool’s generalisability is likely narrow outside of similar extremely LRS settings, and further validation studies are essential prior to broader use.
Background Uneven vaccination and less resilient health care systems mean hospitals in LMICs are at risk of being overwhelmed during periods of increased COVID-19 infection. Risk-scores proposed for rapid triage of need for admission from the emergency department (ED) have been developed in higher-income settings during initial waves of the pandemic. Methods Routinely collected data for public hospitals in the Western Cape, South Africa from the 27th August 2020 to 11th March 2022 were used to derive a cohort of 446,084 ED patients with suspected COVID-19. The primary outcome was death or ICU admission at 30 days. The cohort was divided into derivation and Omicron variant validation sets. We developed the LMIC-PRIEST score based on the coefficients from multivariable analysis in the derivation cohort and existing triage practices. We externally validated accuracy in the Omicron period and a UK cohort. Results We analysed 305,564 derivation, 140,520 Omicron and 12,610 UK validation cases. Over 100 events per predictor parameter were modelled. Multivariable analyses identified eight predictor variables retained across models. We used these findings and clinical judgement to develop a score based on South African Triage Early Warning Scores and also included age, sex, oxygen saturation, inspired oxygen, diabetes and heart disease. The LMIC-PRIEST score achieved C-statistics: 0.82 (95% CI: 0.82 to 0.83) development cohort; 0.79 (95% CI: 0.78 to 0.80) Omicron cohort; and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.79 to 0.80) UK cohort. Differences in prevalence of outcomes led to imperfect calibration in external validation. However, use of the score at thresholds of three or less would allow identification of very low-risk patients (NPV ≥0.99) who could be rapidly discharged using information collected at initial assessment. Conclusion The LMIC-PRIEST score shows good discrimination and high sensitivity at lower thresholds and can be used to rapidly identify low-risk patients in LMIC ED settings.
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