The pharmaceutical industry remains under huge pressure to address the high attrition rates in drug development. Attempts to reduce the number of efficacy- and safety-related failures by analysing possible links to the physicochemical properties of small-molecule drug candidates have been inconclusive because of the limited size of data sets from individual companies. Here, we describe the compilation and analysis of combined data on the attrition of drug candidates from AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Company, GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer. The analysis reaffirms that control of physicochemical properties during compound optimization is beneficial in identifying compounds of candidate drug quality and indicates for the first time a link between the physicochemical properties of compounds and clinical failure due to safety issues. The results also suggest that further control of physicochemical properties is unlikely to have a significant effect on attrition rates and that additional work is required to address safety-related failures. Further cross-company collaborations will be crucial to future progress in this area.

With the release of the landmark report Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, in 2007, precipitated a major change in the way toxicity testing is conducted. It envisions increased efficiency in toxicity testing and decreased animal usage by transitioning from current expensive and lengthy in vivo testing with qualitative endpoints to in vitro toxicity pathway assays on human cells or cell lines using robotic high-throughput screening with mechanistic quantitative parameters. Risk assessment in the exposed human population would focus on avoiding significant perturbations in these toxicity pathways. Computational systems biology models would be implemented to determine the dose-response models of perturbations of pathway function. Extrapolation of in vitro results to in vivo human blood and tissue concentrations would be based on pharmacokinetic models for the given exposure condition. This practice would enhance human relevance of test results, and would cover several test agents, compared to traditional toxicological testing strategies. As all the tools that are necessary to implement the vision are currently available or in an advanced stage of development, the key prerequisites to achieving this paradigm shift are a commitment to change in the scientific community, which could be facilitated by a broad discussion of the vision, and obtaining necessary resources to enhance current knowledge of pathway perturbations and pathway assays in humans and to implement computational systems biology models. Implementation of these strategies would result in a new toxicity testing paradigm firmly based on human biology.

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The mitogen activated protein (MAP) kinases or extracellular signal-regulated kinases (Erks) are activated in response to Ras expression or exposure to tumor promoters or to growth factors, and have been implicated in AP-1 transactivation in some models. We have shown that tumor promoter induced activation of the transcription factor AP-1 is required for induced neoplastic transformation in the Balb/C JB6 cell model. Jun and Fos family protein levels have been found not to be limiting for AP-1 response. The present study asks whether activation of Erks1 and 2 is required for AP-1 transactivation and transformation of JB6 cells and whether Erks might be targeted for cancer prevention. Expression of either of two dierent dominant negative kinase inactive Erk2 mutants in transformation sensitive (P+) JB6 cells substantially inhibited the tumor promoter induced activation of Erks1 and 2 and of AP-1 measured by a collagenase-luciferase reporter. Multiple mutant Erk2 expressing clonal lines were also rendered non-responsive to induced neoplastic transformation. These observations, together with our recent ®nding attributing AP-1 non-responsiveness to Erk de®ciency in a clonal line of transformation resistant (P7) cells, argue for a requirement for Erks1 and/or 2 activation in AP-1 transactivation in the mouse JB6 neoplastic progression model, and suggest the utility of Erks as a prevention target.