The sudden deterioration of patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) into critical illness is of major concern. It is imperative to identify these patients early. We show that a deep learning-based survival model can predict the risk of COVID-19 patients developing critical illness based on clinical characteristics at admission. We develop this model using a cohort of 1590 patients from 575 medical centers, with internal validation performance of concordance index 0.894 We further validate the model on three separate cohorts from Wuhan, Hubei and Guangdong provinces consisting of 1393 patients with concordance indexes of 0.890, 0.852 and 0.967 respectively. This model is used to create an online calculation tool designed for patient triage at admission to identify patients at risk of severe illness, ensuring that patients at greatest risk of severe illness receive appropriate care as early as possible and allow for effective allocation of health resources.

Microsatellite instability (MSI) has been approved as a pan-cancer biomarker for immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy. However, current MSI identification methods are not available for all patients. We proposed an ensemble multiple instance deep learning model to predict microsatellite status based on histopathology images, and interpreted the pathomics-based model with multi-omics correlation. Methods: Two cohorts of patients were collected, including 429 from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA-COAD) and 785 from an Asian colorectal cancer (CRC) cohort (Asian-CRC). We established the pathomics model, named Ensembled Patch Likelihood Aggregation (EPLA), based on two consecutive stages: patch-level prediction and WSI-level prediction. The initial model was developed and validated in TCGA-COAD, and then generalized in Asian-CRC through transfer learning. The pathological signatures extracted from the model were analyzed with genomic and transcriptomic profiles for model interpretation. Results: The EPLA model achieved an area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.8848 (95% CI: 0.8185-0.9512) in the TCGA-COAD test set and an AUC of 0.8504 (95% CI: 0.7591-0.9323) in the external validation set Asian-CRC after transfer learning. Notably, EPLA captured the relationship between pathological phenotype of poor differentiation and MSI ( P < 0.001). Furthermore, the five pathological imaging signatures identified from the EPLA model were associated with mutation burden and DNA damage repair related genotype in the genomic profiles, and antitumor immunity activated pathway in the transcriptomic profiles. Conclusions: Our pathomics-based deep learning model can effectively predict MSI from histopathology images and is transferable to a new patient cohort. The interpretability of our model by association with pathological, genomic and transcriptomic phenotypes lays the foundation for prospective clinical trials of the application of this artificial intelligence (AI) platform in ICB therapy.

Purpose Microvascular invasion (MVI) is a valuable predictor of survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. This study developed predictive models using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and deep learning based on CT images to predict MVI preoperatively. Methods In total, 405 patients were included. A total of 7302 radiomic features and 17 radiological features were extracted by a radiomics feature extraction package and radiologists, respectively. We developed a XGBoost model based on radiomics features, radiological features and clinical variables and a three-dimensional convolutional neural network (3D-CNN) to predict MVI status. Next, we compared the efficacy of the two models. Results Of the 405 patients, 220 (54.3%) were MVI positive, and 185 (45.7%) were MVI negative. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the Radiomics-Radiological-Clinical (RRC) Model and 3D-CNN Model in the training set were 0.952 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.923–0.973) and 0.980 (95% CI 0.959–0.993), respectively (p = 0.14). The AUROCs of the RRC Model and 3D-CNN Model in the validation set were 0.887 (95% CI 0.797–0.947) and 0.906 (95% CI 0.821–0.960), respectively (p = 0.83). Based on the MVI status predicted by the RRC and 3D-CNN Models, the mean recurrence-free survival (RFS) was significantly better in the predicted MVI-negative group than that in the predicted MVI-positive group (RRC Model: 69.95 vs. 24.80 months, p < 0.001; 3D-CNN Model: 64.06 vs. 31.05 months, p = 0.027). Conclusion The RRC Model and 3D-CNN models showed considerable efficacy in identifying MVI preoperatively. These machine learning models may facilitate decision-making in HCC treatment but requires further validation.

The current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has recently been declared as a pandemic and spread over 200 countries and territories. Forecasting the long-term trend of the COVID-19 epidemic can help health authorities determine the transmission characteristics of the virus and take appropriate prevention and control strategies beforehand. Previous studies that solely applied traditional epidemic models or machine learning models were subject to underfitting or overfitting problems. We propose a new model named Dynamic-Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Quarantined (D-SEIQ), by making appropriate modifications of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) model and integrating machine learning based parameter optimization under epidemiological rational constraints. We used the model to predict the long-term reported cumulative numbers of COVID-19 cases in China from January 27, 2020. We evaluated our model on officially reported confirmed cases from three different regions in China, and the results proved the effectiveness of our model in terms of simulating and predicting the trend of the COVID-19 outbreak. In China-Excluding-Hubei area within 7 days after the first public report, our model successfully and accurately predicted the long trend up to 40 days and the exact date of the outbreak peak. The predicted cumulative number (12,506) by March 10, 2020, was only 3·8% different from the actual number (13,005). The parameters obtained by our model proved the effectiveness of prevention and intervention strategies on epidemic control in China. The prediction results for five other countries suggested the external validity of our model. The integrated approach of epidemic and machine learning models could accurately forecast the long-term trend of the COVID-19 outbreak. The model parameters also provided insights into the analysis of COVID-19 transmission and the effectiveness of interventions in China.

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