No abstract

Paleoecology can provide valuable insights into the ecology of species that complement observation and experiment‐based assessments of climate impact dynamics. New paleoecological records (e.g., pollen, macrofossils) from the Italian Peninsula suggest a much wider climatic niche of the important European tree species Abies alba (silver fir) than observed in its present spatial range. To explore this discrepancy between current and past distribution of the species, we analyzed climatic data (temperature, precipitation, frost, humidity, sunshine) and vegetation‐independent paleoclimatic reconstructions (e.g., lake levels, chironomids) and use global coupled carbon‐cycle climate (NCAR CSM1.4) and dynamic vegetation (LandClim) modeling. The combined evidence suggests that during the mid‐Holocene (∼6000 years ago), prior to humanization of vegetation, A. alba formed forests under conditions that exceeded the modern (1961–1990) upper temperature limit of the species by ∼5–7°C (July means). Annual precipitation during this natural period was comparable to today (>700–800 mm), with drier summers and wetter winters. In the meso‐Mediterranean to sub‐Mediterranean forests A. alba co‐occurred with thermophilous taxa such as Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Olea europaea, Phillyrea, Arbutus, Cistus, Tilia, Ulmus, Acer, Hedera helix, Ilex aquifolium, Taxus, and Vitis. Results from the last interglacial (ca. 130 000–115 000 BP), when human impact was negligible, corroborate the Holocene evidence. Thermophilous Mediterranean A. alba stands became extinct during the last 5000 years when land‐use pressure and specifically excessive anthropogenic fire and browsing disturbance increased. Our results imply that the ecology of this key European tree species is not yet well understood. On the basis of the reconstructed realized climatic niche of the species, we anticipate that the future geographic range of A. alba may not contract regardless of migration success, even if climate should become significantly warmer than today with summer temperatures increasing by up to 5–7°C, as long as precipitation does not fall below 700–800 mm/yr, and anthropogenic disturbance (e.g., fire, browsing) does not become excessive. Our finding contradicts recent studies that projected range contractions under global‐warming scenarios, but did not factor how millennia of human impacts reduced the realized climatic niche of A. alba.

A mid- to late-Holocene synthesis of fire activity from the Mediterranean basin explores the linkages among fire, climate variability and seasonality through several climatic and ecological transitions. Regional fire histories were created from 36 radiocarbon-dated sedimentary charcoal records, available from the Global Charcoal Database. During the mid-Holocene 'Thermal Maximum' around 7500-4500 cal. BP, charcoal records from the northern Mediterranean suggest an increase in fire while records from the southern Mediterranean indicate a decrease associated with wetter-than-present summers. A North-South partition between 40 degrees and 43 degrees N latitude is apparent in the central and western Mediterranean. Relatively abrupt changes in fire activity are observed c. 5500-5000 cal. BP. Records of Holocene fire activity appear sensitive to both orbitally forced climate changes and shorter-lived excursions which may be related to North Atlantic cold events, possibly modulated by an NAO-like climate mechanism. In cases where human-fire interactions have been documented, the regional coherency between fire occurrence and climate forcing suggests a dominant fire-climate relationship during the early-mid Holocene. The human influence on regional fire activity became increasingly important after c. 4000-3000 cal. BP. Results also suggest that: (1) teleconnections between the Mediterranean area and other climatic regions, in particular the North Atlantic and the low latitudes monsoon areas, influenced past fire activity; (2) gradual forcing, such as changes in orbital parameters, may have triggered abrupt shifts in fire activity; (3) regional fire reconstructions contradict former notions of a gradual (mid-to late-Holocene) aridification of the entire region due to climate and/or human activities and the importance of shorter-term events; (4) Mediterranean fire activity appears hightly sensitive to climate dynamics and thus could be considerably impacted by future climate changes

[1] Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo-fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming. , et al. (2012), Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 26, GB4007,